January 08, 2012

Week 14: Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Vegas Line: Eagles + 3

Rob’s Line: Eagles + 4.5

Regular readers of my posts (I’m hopeful that there’s at least two of you out there) will know that I’m kind of in love with the Miami Dolphins right now. I have them pegged twelfth in my weekly Power Rankings so yes, a 4-8 team are ranked higher than a handful of playoff hopefuls. For as long as Miami keep themsleves in games until the death, I’ll keep harping on about the run they’re on.

They’re 4-3 over their past seven games with the losing margin in the three losses combined amouting to seven points. They should be 7-0 in that span and that puts them bang in the middle of the race for a wildcard. They’re hotter than July right now (thank you, Stevie Wonder) and I’m a trifle surprised that Vegas seem to underestimate them this week against Philadelphia, a franchise in something of a mess right now.
Quarterback Michael Vick looks set to return on Sunday and probably not before time following Vince Young’s four interception outing in Seattle last Thursday week. However, Vick’s hardly been the model of consistency himself this season, throwing eleven touchdowns and eleven interceptions. Hang on, I take that all back…that’s an incredible level of consistency, if ever I saw it. What Vick does bring to the table is a running threat, probably only matched by Cam Newton in Carolina. The Eagles possess the league’s second ranked rushing unit and while LeSean McCoy is no slouch (1,134 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, 12 TDs), Vick has helped push Philly’s run game even higher with his 535 yards at 8.2 YPC. Strangely, he has no rushing touchdowns.
That dual strength will be tested this week when they face Miami’s fifth ranked run defence, so something will have to give somewhere. The Dolphins fare less well against the pass, ranking just 24th, but I don’t believe that’ll overly concern them seeing as what should be the focal point of Philly’s receiving game, DeSean Jackson, appears mired in a funk so gloomy that you almost believe the Eagles will be happy to see the back of him in 2012. If what is reported is correct, he’s one of the core reasons for the disastrous lack of chemistry in the city of brotherly love.
If team chemistry is important when considering a betting spread (which it is as it’s a huge intangible, especially when looking at a game featuring the Eagles), then Miami is top three in the league right now. Over his last five games, quarterback Matt Moore has 8 TDs and 1 INT and has been a cool head as the leader of the offense.
Running back Reggie Bush would surely have noted the performance last week of Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch, who rumbled for 148 yards and two scores against a Philly run defense that’s allowing 115 yards per game. Bush hasn’t come anywhere near those yards in a single game all season and it’s highly unlikely he will either on Sunday, but these Dolphins are plain just enjoying their football right now, something Philadelphia can only see in their dreams. And as crazy as it sounds, that enjoyment is translating itself to production and is proving potent.
Yes, I’m big on the Dolphins this week minus three and will throw this in to the mix too: in their last two home games, against Buffalo and Oakland, Miami’s scored 69 points compared to 22 against. It’s almost impossible for me to dislike a hot team against one that began imploding from as early as Week 3.

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