NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS 
Vegas Line: Titans + 3.5
Rob’s Line: Titans + 5.5
Go check out Tennessee’s last three results. And what’s scarier is that this game could also very easily end up 23-17…to New Orleans, if I may be so bold. Let’s address perhaps the most talked about issue here: Titans running back Chris Johnson.
Through the first nine weeks of the season, he could barely buy a yard, save for a 101 yard outing against Cleveland in Week 4. In three of his last four games he has 100 yards and he’s hasn’t just squeaked past that mark either. He’s amassed 130, 190 and 153 yards against the Panthers, Buccaneers and Bills respectively.
The Saints are all about offense, one would assume. That unit grabs all the headlines as quarterback *Drew Brees charges along towards breaking Dan Marino’s 1984 record of 5,084 passing yards in a season, helped in no small way by second year sensation Jimmy Graham, who last week became the first tight end in Saints history to post 1,000 receiving yards in a season. However, they do have a defense to speak of, at least against the run anyway so Johnson may struggle to notch up his fourth century in five. That said, he appears to have found his mojo all over again so I’m not going to sit bolt upright in shock should he have another good day. The one major note of caution here is that he’s just three weeks removed from 13 yards on 12 carries against Atlanta, but the Falcons have been excellent against the run this season.
I have been mildly surprised at how well the Titans have performed at times this season, which leads to greater surprise that they’re still in the hunt for a wildcard spot, particularly considering Johnson’s aforementioned start to the season accompanied by the loss of stud receiver Kenny Britt as long ago as Week 3. However, a closer look at their victories shows that since Week 4 they’ve beaten Cleveland, Indianapolis, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Over that same span they’ve lost to Pittsburgh, Houston, Cincinnati and Atlanta, each of them playoff contenders. With New Orleans falling into the latter category, I quite like our chances of asking the Saints to win by just four points.
It’s difficult to call Tennessee bullies, but they’ve beaten teams either mired in a slump or, in the case of the Panthers, a team deciding to take an extra week off following their bye. That’s exactly what Cam Newton and co. did and it’s one of the defining games of the season for me when I look back in handicapping terms.
For the Titans to win this Sunday they’d need to break what’s developed into a small trend and defeat a playoff calibre team. Dare I write Tennessee off again this season, but I’m taking the Saints to cover.
* Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are also on pace to beat Marino’s record, but Brees is ahead entering Week 14.
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