NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 
Vegas Line: Redskins + 7.5
Rob’s Line: Redskins + 9.5
Oh, how Washington made me look stupid last week. Having looked to be on a run of form after playing hard against the Cowboys and Seahawks (and that was a trek and a half for the ‘Skins), I couldn’t see any way that they weren’t going to cover the spread at home to the Jets, especially as Vegas were offering a field goal start.
All looked good when they took a three point lead with just under eight minutes to go and there we were with a six point lead on the handicap. Here I was, vindicated, and what could possibly go wrong after holding the Jets for the first 52 minutes? A lot as it turned out as Gang Green scored three touchdowns in a crazy end to the game. I was actually embarrassed at having to write something like this, but we all need to face our demons and here I am staring that Redskins logo firmly in the eye…well, the one we can see anyway.
So, are we underestimating Washington here based upon them giving up three late scores last week? Perhaps, but it’s because a scoreline of 34-19 looks to be quite a heavy defeat, particularly at home and we have to think that anything the Jets can do, the division rival Patriots are able to do just that little bit better. In addition, the NFL has suspended the Redskins’ leading receiver, tight end Fred Davis, and left tackle Trent Williams, for the final four games of the season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. That’s a huge, huge blow.
New England is on a pretty hefty scoring run at the moment, having broken the thirty point barrier in each of its past four games. In fact, they’ve hit the thirty mark in nine of their twelve games throughout the season so the odds on them doing the same this week are bang in their favour. However, the Redskins possess the league’s eighth ranked defense and are ninth against the pass. That’s interesting because, as we know, the Patriots excel when passing the ball and Tom Brady ranks only behind Aaron Rodgers in quarterbacks. His favourite target, Wes Welker, leads the league in receving yards with 1,253 and to give you an idea of how important he is to Brady is the fact that the joint second leading receivers, Steve Smith (Panthers) and Calvin Johnson (Lions) are a full 161 yards behind Welker.
Another reason for the line favouring New England heavily (if that is your take on it) is that this is a game that they really can’t afford to lose if they wish to keep tabs on Pittsburgh in the AFC in the race for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The Steelers’ victory on Thursday night is not a bad thing if you’re looking to back the Patriots as it means they’ll be focused from the start. Backing the Patriots is exactly what I’m going to do and bigger than Washington’s late game meltdown last week is the aforementioned suspensions.
This has the potential to get ugly and it’s why I’m happy to make the Patriots one of my bets of the week.
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