ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS 
Vegas Line: Panthers + 3
Rob’s Line: Falcons + 0.5
Whereas I have to believe, as a handicapper, that some teams look beyond the game immediately at hand to games ahead on the schedule, there’s no chance of that happening with these two this week. Carolina does have to travel to Houston next Sunday, which gives Cam Newton the perfect opportunity to gauge just how far he’s come this season against the Texans’ quite outstanding defense (currently ranked number one in the league), but this game is far more important to them.
Firstly, Houston sits in the opposite conference. Secondly, Atlanta doesn’t. Thirdly, the Falcons reside in the Panthers’ division. Fourthly, we have a playoff contender going to a team with a 4-8 record looking to play spoiler. The Panthers would like nothing more than to dent the playoff chances of the Falcons on Sunday: the cat could literally chase the bird at Bank of America Stadium.
It’s been four weeks since Carolina inexplicably succumbed 30-3 at home to Tennessee, but since then they’ve won two of their last three, the defeat coming in Detroit where they were outscored 35-8 in the second half by the Lions, having led by thirteen points at haltime. That defeat came on the road, but to follow that with two wins while remaning on the road, albeit against the Colts and a severely faltering Buccaneers, is impressive for a team who’ve lost twice as many games as they’ve won this year.
So, home comforts have been the order of the day this week and Carolina will be feeling good about themselves. Atlanta, on the other hand, has a road record that, when scrutinised, throws up an interesting statistic: the Falcons have struggled this year when playing outdoors. They’ve lost in Chicago, Tampa and Houston and only beat Seattle by two points. Like many teams who play in domed stadiums, Atlanta’s vulnerable when presented with a natural grass field. It looks ridiculous in print, but it’s something we can’t ignore. The Panthers play outdoors and I’ve factored that into my spread and it’s why I favour Carolina by the narrowest of margins.
Newton’s been a beast running with the ball this season and last week he broke the record for most rushing touchdowns in a season by a quarterback, a mark that’s stood since 1976. His hopes of setting the bar even higher than thirteen may have to take a back seat this week as Atlanta boasts the league’s third ranked run defense, but that may not be a huge issue as the Falcons only rank 21st defending the pass, giving Newton the opportunity to air it out to Steve Smith, who sits joint second in the league in receiving yards with 1,092.
Yes, I love Carolina on the handicap in this matchup, but I’m not slow to realise that they face a challenge from Falcons running back Michael Turner. The Panthers’ 27th ranked run defense is allowing 132 yards per game and with Atlanta racking up 113 yards per game on the ground, there appears little chance of restricting Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers to below three figures. However, as dangerous as that is, I like my money on the home team for the reasons mentioned above and the three points on offer.
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