CLEVELAND BROWNS @ HOUSTON TEXANS 
Vegas Line: Browns + 11
Rob’s Line: Browns + 11.5*
My initial thought on this was to offer Cleveland 12.5 on the handicap, but I haven’t because it looks as though running back Peyton Hillis will suit up for the Browns for the first time in three weeks. However, this line opened in Vegas with Cleveland + 10.5 so they must have seen some early money for Houston. The Hillis factor shouldn’t really have played any part in my decision based on his form this season, but it’s one of those intangilbles that I’m taking into consideration and the fact that he’s practiced this week without bothering his hamstring** nags away at me.
His aforementioned lack of form translates into 60 carries for 211 yards at an average of 3.5 yards per carry, hardly the stuff of legend for Houston’s sixth ranked rushing defense to fear, but he has a point to prove after some early season troubles (the Madden Curse truly does exist and is the stuff of legend) and, like I say, it’s weighed on my decision.
The Texans may finally welcome back one of their own offensive weapons this week in wide receiver Andre Johnson, but I personally think it’s extremely unlikely he’ll play as I don’t think the Houston coaching staff will consider it a risk worth taking, especially in a game they should win without him anyway. In addition, if he does play, he’ll only find himself up against stud cornerback Joe Haden, who’s helped maked Cleveland’s secondary one of the most feared in the league so giving Johnson another week’s rest (with a bye week on the horizon, too) seems to make perfect sense.
As well as Houston ranking highly against the run, their defense ranks fifth against the pass and this is a hugely talented, well balanced team with the potential to reach the AFC Championship Game and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if they did shock a Pittsburgh or New England in the playoffs. The one thing against them though, particularly against those two AFC powerhouses in January, is inexperience, but, as I say, I’m prepared for them to cause an upset.
It’s that defense that should easily stifle Hillis and quarterback Colt McCoy and the big worry for Browns fans is how exactly they’re going to score points. Before Josh Cribbs scored a touchdown with just over six minutes to play in San Francisco last week, they’d mustered just six points in nearly eight quarters of football and that includes playing at home to the Seahawks, so I really can’t see how Houston doesn’t win by at least two touchdowns.
The Texans’ effort will be aided by probably the most enviable backfield in the league and being able to call upon both Arian Foster and Ben Tate and their one thousand combined rushing yards this season has offensive coordinators everywhere casting envious glances towards south east Texas.
I should be confidently predicting Houston covering the spread while barely moving out of second gear, but more than a couple of teams reverted to type last week when favoured by double digits and it’s always a risk asking a team to win by two touchdowns with your hard earned resting on the outcome. However, Cleveland doesn’t appear to have any chance this week and I have no confidence whatsoever in them so I do confidently predict Houston to cover.
* UPDATE: I’m pushing my line out to 12.5 as Hillis reinjured his hamstring in practice on Friday and has been ruled out. With Montario Hardesty also out, McCoy will be handing the ball off to Chris Ogbonnaya, who was signed, ironically, from Houston’s practice squad three weeks ago.
** UPDATE: He has bothered his hamstring!
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