ATLANTA FALCONS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 
Vegas Line: Colts + 7
Rob’s Line: Colts + 7.5
Having lost at home to Green Bay in Week 5, many prognosticators were writing off Atlanta’s chances of making the postseason and any thoughts of reaching the Super Bowl were deemed best put on hold for another season and not least because the road to Super Sunday in Indianapolis on February 6 is destined to go right through Lambeau Field.
The upcoming schedule before their bye week pitted them against the dangerous Carolina Panthers and even more dangerous Detroit Lions and the Falcons’ season was as near as it could be to being on the line. However, it never ceases to amaze me what some teams are capable of when their backs are against the wall and they almost have nothing to lose. Playing almost without fear (almost), they won those two contests and were especially impressive when coming away from Detroit with the W, a team who are as intimidating as the home fans who fill Ford Field.
Indianapolis join the long list of teams who won’t be playing at home in the Super Bowl, an outcome that was probably already evident as soon as Peyton Manning’s injury was known to be long term. Curtis Painter soon replaced backup Kerry Collins at quarterback and showed some poise, especially when compiling a 115.8 QB rating against Kansas City in Week 5. Alas, it was also a game where the Colts failed to hold on to a 24-7 lead, but they’d been playing hard…until that 62-7 shocker in N’Awlins. The hangover from that seemed to travel with them to Tennessee last week and it was a sickness bug they couldn’t shake as they rather tamely lost 27-10 to the Titans.
It should be noted that last Sunday was their their third consecutive road game so maybe it wasn’t a huge surprise that an 0-7 team missing home should succumb so meekly. The question remains as to how many games Indy can win this season or will they find themselves in pole position to draft Andrew Luck? The remaining schedule looks brutal with games against the Falcons (obviously), Panthers, Patriots, Ravens and Texans still to come.
Atlanta enter this one with an issue or two, but it’s more down to intangibles and/or conjecture. The first is that the bye week may have disrupted some momentum and, secondly, is the game immediately after this, a home date against the division rival Saints. The Falcons know they should have little trouble winning here, but it’s been a crazy time of late, especially for us handicappers, and I wonder how much of an eye Matt Ryan and co. will have on next Sunday.
It’s difficult to determine how full Lucas Oil Stadium will be this week and even that may play against Atlanta, much the same as happened to New Orleans last week in St. Louis; the Saints weren’t up for it from the start and the atmosphere (or lack thereof) in the Edward Jones Dome only added to their sense of apathy.
Both teams have good news on the injury front, with Atlanta’s Julio Jones and Indy’s Joseph Addai listed as probable, but it’s worth noting that the Falcons, who gave the Cleveland Browns the keys to the mansion for the right to select Jones in this year’s draft, have won their last two without him and while it’s folly for me to suggest they could do the same this week…they could do the same this week.
Statistically, this matchup doesn’t set the pulse racing, but the spread is a different beast. I’m actually tempted to ask Atlanta to only give up 6.5, but that’s probably a little too dangerous and flatters the Colts somewhat. Indy could really fold down the stretch after the last two weeks, but I can’t see a proud franchise letting that happen. Tentatively, I take the Colts plus the points on offer, based purely on the Falcons having bigger fish to fry in the coming weeks.
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