TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 
Vegas Line: Buccaneers + 8
Rob’s Line: Buccaneers + 8.5
A crucial NFC South matchup to finally give these two teams some focus! What is going on in Tampa and New Orleans? They can’t seem to agree between themselves who should do the most (the least, even?) to allow the Atlanta Falcons back in to the division race and now that that’s happened, Atlanta is looking hot all of a sudden.
Let’s address the Buccaneers recent form first. Sandwiched between an impressive 26-20 home victory over these very same Saints were bad losses, one of them a 48-3 shocker in San Fran and the other in London as the home team versus the Bears, a 24-18 reversal that did flatter Tampa a little. Matt Forte was the best player on the field that day (of course that’s no surprise) and he wouldn’t have deserved to leave Wembley Stadium on the losing side.
This indicates that the Bucs don’t travel well and, although they did win in Minnesota in Week 2, they didn’t turn up until the third quarter, trailing as they did, 17-0 at the half. However, they are rested after their bye week and N’Awlins will be the shortest trip they’ve faced so far so that’s something that bodes well. What doesn’t bode well for them is a Saints team on the back of an embarrassing loss, in St. Louis of all places. I’ve read this week that the thumping dished out by the Rams last week will have the Saints on a downer and that they may not be motivated for this. Are you kidding me??? Yes, that piece I refer to was written by an adult and a so called football expert and, may I mention, somebody whose opinion I normally respect.
I would hate to be a road team going to the Superdome this week. I think last week can be explained and it doesn’t make the Saints a bad football team…far from it. They’re still extremely dangerous and may do what I refer to as a ‘Pittsburgh’ this week: don’t underestimate New Orleans, especially at home. Especially at home.
The 62-7 drubbing of Indianapolis on primetime on Sunday night two weeks ago was an emotional win and it would’ve had the folks in Green Bay sitting up and taking notice. Drew Brees had a game for the ages, throwing for more touchdowns (5) than incompletions (4) and they showed their hand to the rest of the NFC. To have to go from the euphoria of that night to a barely-two-thirds-full Edward Jones Dome to face the winless Rams did nothing for their motivation levels and while this is inexcusable at the pro level, it’s one of the intangibles of the game and something I’ve mentioned more than once.
Worryingly, the Saints were also sloppy the week before the Colts blowout when they lost in Tampa, as mentioned above. However, that, and the spanking they received in St. Louis are the two reasons why the Saints will be nothing but suprememly motivated for this one. They want revenge for both of those losses and what better way to dish out some retribution than at home to a division rival with aspirations of making the playoffs at your expense.
In addition, the Bucs are horrible on defense when compared to what Brees is able to conjure up. Tampa’s defense ranks 23rd against the run and 26th against the pass and this is against a Saints offense that leads the league in passing and ranks eleventh overall running the ball. Rookie running back Mark Ingram is listed as questionable, but N’Awlins can still call upon the one-two punch of Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas, while Brees’s receiving targets (of which there are many) are led by second year tight end sensation Jimmy Graham (49 receptions, 713 yards).
Tampa welcomes back running back LeGarrette Blount from injury and that’s extremely reassuring following Earnest Graham’s season ending Achilles injury and the Bucs would love the opportunity for Blount to be able to carry the ball 25 times. However, should the Saints come out of the blocks firing, quarterback Josh Freeman could be asked to carry more of the burden. This is nothing new to him, but I really feel the Saints are going to have another big day on Sunday.
They’re hurting, and badly, and it’s why I love them to win by more than eight and cover the spread.
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