Week 10: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Vegas Line: Lions + 3

Rob’s Line: Lions + 3.5

Chicago last lost a game to this very same Detroit Lions team on Monday Night Football five weeks ago. However, since then there ain’t been no stopping them. In fact, they even led at half time on that Monday, 10-7, but succumbed 24-13.
That defeat placed the Bears at 2-3 with difficult road trips to London (to play the ‘home’ team Buccaneers) and Philadelphia looming and when the defending NFC North champions looked up, all they saw was the undefeated Lions and Packers already three games ahead of them.
Matters are looking a little different now because despite Detroit helping to quieten Tebow-mania when they did a 45-10 job on the Broncos two weeks ago, they followed that Week 5 win over the Bears with two straight home losses, to San Francisco and Atlanta, and I for one had them down as simply flattering to deceive. The thumping win in Denver is difficult to gauge as the Broncos were in the midst of tinkering with their offense to best fit Tebow’s skills (tinkering that had the desired effect in Oakland last Sunday) so I wonder what we’ll see from Detroit this week.
They’re coming off a bye week, which, historically, hasn’t leant itself to teams coming out firing on all cylinders, but that theory’s been somewhat blown out of the water this season which further muddies the handicapping field here. At first glance I like Chicago -3 a lot and that’s because my eye was drawn to one particular statistic. The Lions rank 29th defensively against the run, which paves the way for my favourite footballer.
Bears’ running back Matt Forte has rushed for 805 yards this season at 5.4 yards per carry, including 116 yards in the first meeting in Detroit at 5.3 yards per carry so let’s assume that form continues here (which it should) because there’s no reason to think that it won’t. That shouldn’t leave quarterback Jay Cutler facing too many third and long situations, which also saves him from a possible battering against Detroit’s ferocious front seven.
There is one caveat to me liking the Bears so much and that’s the availability of Devin Hester. He’s a wide receiver who boasts modest stats, but that’s not where he’s at his most dangerous. If you take away from any team arguably the best kick returner in NFL history, there’s the clear and present danger of the offense having longer fields to work with. Hester hasn’t practiced all week due to an ankle injury, but the Bears do expect him to play. Still, I’m a little cautious.
The Lions are still without running back Jahvid Best, who hasn’t played since Week 6 with concussion-like symptoms. They desperately miss him and he had a monster game in the first meeting with the Bears, but the worry for him on a personal level is how long it’s taking him to get over the injury. He’s a good, honest football player so we wish him well.
All of this leaves the running duties to backups Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams, neither of whom will strike fear into a Chicago run defense that ranks 12th in the league. Over to you Matthew Stafford…not that he’ll mind. He may have to look to Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew a lot, but as his favourite and most reliable targets he’s at a comfort level with them that gives him confidence to overcome what may be a stagnant rushing attack. Not being classed yet as an elite QB, Stafford has also quietly thrown for 19 TDs and 4 INTs, a ratio that any of the elite QBs wouldn’t mind in print.
This is a great divisional matchup with both teams fighting hard for a wildcard berth, but I can’t escape Chicago on the handicap. I expect Forte to have a big day, too big for the Lions to protect a three point spread. The Bears to cover.