Week 10: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Vegas Line: Bengals + 3

Rob’s Line: Steelers + 0.5

For the second week in succession, the Cincinnati Bengals have cause for myself and Vegas to differ quite dramatically on our view of the spread. Dramatically may read a little, er…dramatic, being that our opposing view on the spread amounts to as little as 3.5 points, but in any NFL game, a 3.5 point difference in opinion is massive and especially in a game as close as this one promises to be.
In short, if I went to Vegas offering a half point to Pittsburgh, the sharks would bite my hand off! However, I have confidence in my spread and there’s no way I’m backing off. So, yes, I love Cincinnati with a field goal start.
Curiously, for a 6-2 team, the Bengals’ offensive statistics don’t match up with what a team in their position should. They rank just 21st in both rushing and passing the ball and are about to face up to a Steelers’ D that ranks sixth against the run and third against the pass. This is without doubt Cincy’s biggest test of the season, but they come in to the game with their own defense looking none too shabby either, ranking second against the run and tenth against the pass.
In addition to the above stats are two intangibles, one for each team. Pittsburgh have just played two huge games, against the Patriots and Ravens, and the latter was an emotional loss on primetime on Sunday night. Cincinnati have a chance to make a statement, but will the prospect of them going 7-2 frighten them? Many better teams down the years have had this bug bite them, but I’m really beginning to believe in this Bengals team, in particular their swarming defense and see their intangible as less of a problem than Pittsburgh’s.
I’m not questioning what the Steelers have left in the tank, but they’ve played, in successive weeks, what amounts to two AFC Championship Games and they head to Cincinnati favoured by three points so their thinking could be that they’re expected to win and the foot comes off the gas just a little bit. I’ve written this season how Pittsburgh are a dangerous animal when backed into a corner, but, unlike earlier in the season, nobody’s writing them off after last week and I still do expect them to make the playoffs and even the Ravens know that once it comes to January, the Steelers can go to Baltimore and walk away with the W.
From scratch, at least in Cincinnati, barely a cigarette paper separates these teams so I take the Bengals and the points.