OAKLAND RAIDERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 
Vegas Line: Raiders + 7
Rob’s Line: Raiders + 7.5
Thursday Night Football is back! An elongated NFL week…it really doesn’t get any better for us football fans, but it gives the teams chosen to showcase their talents on primetime the shortest of short weeks; or the quickest opportunity to put a bad performance behind them by getting it out of their system and making amends. And these two would like to make amends.
Both Oakland and San Diego sit (with Kansas City) at 4-4 atop the AFC West. I say atop, but that flatters both of these right now, especially the Raiders. Then again, you can’t help the division you find yourself in and all you can do is attempt to beat the three teams you just happen to share that space with. Which brings me on to the form guide.
Since Jason Campbell went down (and subsequently out) against Cleveland four weeks ago, the Raiders have struggled and most of it is of their own doing. More of that in a second, but one thing that wasn’t their own doing is the foot injury that running back Darren McFadden picked up after just his second run against the Chiefs in that 28-0 home shocker exactly a week after Campbell went down. There was the faintest hope that he may return for this game, but he’s definitely out again so Michael Bush picks up the slack once more. Oakland’s coaches love the way Bush plays and he’s deputised well (he often does), running for 195 yards in the two starts he’s had at an average of 5.4 yards a pop, and with the Chargers’ defense only 18th against the run, a case could be made for him cracking the 100 yard mark.
So little faith did coach Hue Jackson have in backup quarterback Kyle Boller to replace Campbell, he promptly offered the family silver (and chucked in the lawnmower for good measure) to the Cincinnati Bengals for quasi-retired QB Carson Palmer, a move that raised eyebrows not due to it being Palmer, but what Oakland were prepared to give up for him. The Bengals will now benefit from the Raiders’ first round pick in the 2012 draft and second round pick in 2013 for a player they no longer even wanted. Nice business if you can get it. And, thus far, Palmer’s been bad.
He’s been credited with making some nice throws and popular opinion amongst those who have the time to break down game film to each frame is that he’ll come good. Look, I’m all for theory, but Palmer wasn’t brought in with the long term goal in mind. He’s thrown six interceptions in six quarters and comes up against a Chargers pass defense that ranks fourth in the league. Breaking dowm my own film here, Palmer needs Bush to run the ball 30 times.
San Diego is in a hole of its own, entering this contest on a three game skid and only one of those losses was forgiveable, last week’s succumbing to the mighty Packers. Prior to that, they led 14-3 in New York before going scoreless in the second half as the Jets scored 17 unanswered points and that was followed by Philip Rivers’ fumbled, last minute snap with his team on the verge of lining up the game winning field goal attempt in Kansas City; the Chiefs recovered, the game went to overtime and the Chargers duly lost.
San Diego is almost unparalleled in its propensity to beat itself, but what must be the most maddening thing for all Bolts fans is that they possess a Super Bowl calibre team, especially on offense. Running back Ryan Mathews is set to return this week and, along with Mike Tolbert, they should be looking to run all over a Raiders run defense that ranks 29th in the league, giving up 140 yards per game. However, many times has my crystal ball cracked this season in what has been a deliciously topsy-turvy season so, equally, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Oakland’s defensive front seven stepped right up and delivered blow upon blow of disappointment to Messrs. Mathews and Tolbert.
This a wonderful divisional matchup to open the Thursday Night Football season and the victor knows that 5-4 will give them the division lead, at least until the Chiefs entertain Denver on Sunday. Conversely, 8-8 could well win the division this year so the loser, at 4-5, is far from out of the playoff picture either. I have very little faith in Palmer and while I really shouldn’t have any in Rivers either, I trust him a little more.
My head says San Diego to cover the spread, but it’s a primetime divisional matchup, the season has made fools of handicappers so far so I take the Raiders and the touchdown start.
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