Week 8: New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Vegas Line: Rams + 13.5

Rob’s Line: Rams + 11.5

I don’t believe that New Orleans should be asked to cover by two touchdowns on Sunday. Should you wish to place your hard earned on them doing so, I commend your bravery. There’s no question that the Saints are two touchdowns better than the Rams and some of what went on last week only reinforces that opinion, but I’ll put down why I’m siding with the home side and the points on offer.

First, some frightening stats from last week, but I’m not going to be frightened by them when weighing up my options this week. The Saints first: the 62 points they scored against the Colts last Sunday were the most by any team since 1985; Drew Brees threw more touchdowns then incompletions; they had a franchise record 36 first downs.
The Rams: allowed Dallas rookie running back DeMarco Murray to rush for 253 yards; he scored the longest rushing TD against them in franchise history; they’ve been outscored 58-10 in their last two games.
From those stats, I’ll comment on a couple. Brees was 31 of 35 for 325 yards and 5 touchdowns and for a (starting) QB to throw less incompletions than he does touchdowns is the stuff of NFL legend. Brees has had a career to speak of already and last week’s performance has his star shining the most it has since his MVP performance in Super Bowl XLIV. However, let’s not forget that this was against the now 0-7 Colts.
For Murray to claim the most rushing yards in a game for a franchise that can boast Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith among its alumni is a travesty and I don’t mean to detract from Murray’s performance one bit. However, I’d wager that even he would feel a slight sense of embarrassment at usurping two Cowboy Hall of Famers in such a way and, as with Brees, let’s not forget who Murray was playing against. My final word on this does come in his defense though. Both Dorsett and Smith would have played many games against many bad teams and you can only beat what’s in front of you so, in all fairness, well done DeMarco.
Now for the reasons why I don’t wish to side with the Saints this week. On the road this season against teams that are supposed playoff contenders, they’ve lost, in Green Bay and in Tampa. The week before the loss to the Bucs they squeaked past the Panthers in Carolina, who aren’t playoff bound (this year), which means they’ve only covered the spread once in four road trips this season.
On top of that, teams who win games by a gazillion points the week before very often come nowhere near to reaching such heights the following week. Then there’s the Saints’ schedule. They go into this week on the crest of a wave, practically assured of winning the game outright so, assuming they build an early lead, I suspect they’ll have an eye on the two games thereafter before their bye week and this could allow the Rams to claw some points back. This, admittedly, is no sure thing, but it’s my belief and a history of backing teams minus 13 or 14 points down the years and seeing them let up in the fourth quarter has made me wary of such favourites, particularly on the road.
So, who awaits N’Awlins after this Sunday? The Buccaneers and Falcons, both NFC South foes, and the Saints have a score to settle with Tampa as they attempt to avenge the recent 26-20 loss. After what should prove to be an emotional performance against the Bucs comes a trip to Atlanta to face a suddenly resurgent Falcons team and that should prove to be an even bigger test. The Falcons are a dangerous team in the Georgia Dome and while no NFL team should dare look ahead to future contests, I don’t see the Saints being as focused as they should be this week.
There is one piece of not so good news for people like myself this week and that’s that the Rams will again be without Sam Bradford at quarterback, which means A. J. Feeley leading the offense (am I doing running back Steven Jackson a disservice here???), but he wasn’t awful by any means last week at Dallas, going 20 of 33 for 196 yards and one interception. Feeley’s a solid veteran and nobody’s fool so, while I’d much prefer to back the Rams with Bradford running things, I’m not overly concerned when holding a 13.5 point start before kickoff.