October 31, 2011

Week 8: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Vegas Line: Vikings + 3.5

Rob’s Line: Vikings + 4.5

Have I underrated Minnesota? The honest answer is that I don’t know. I like both teams with their rookie quarterbacks and this is the second time this season where Cam Newton finds himself facing up to a fellow first round QB. In Week 3, Newton collected the first W of his NFL career at a sodden Bank of America Stadium when the Panthers beat the Blaine Gabbert led Jacksonville Jaguars 16-10 and this week that very same stadium welcomes the Vikings, led by Christian Ponder, drafted eleven places below Newton in April.

This is an excellent matchup, featuring two teams who betray their current record. The Vikes were 1-4 with Donovan McNabb at the helm, but they led in each of those losses and in two games by at least 17 points. The Panthers are all about Cam Newton. Actually, that’s not strictly true as wide receiver Steve Smith is having a sensational campaign, catching 39 passes for 818 yards, which leads the league, but who’s the person firing those passes? You got it.
Newton is beginning to defy superlatives and has blown out of the water all the negative press he received right up until his debut about not being ready for pro football and how his perceived attitude would divide the locker room. He is the reason to watch the Panthers this season and the club have cited him as the reason why they’re selling out games despite being 2-5. People will whisper about a sophomore slump on the horizon next year and this does hold some weight as NFL history is awash with disappointing second seasons and maybe, given a whole offseason to work on game film of him, teams will find flaws and learn how to combat the God given ability he has and if they do, it’s what sound defensive minded coaches are paid to do, but in the meantime enjoy all of this as he’s arguably the most exciting player in the league and I wish I was a Carolina season ticket holder, even though I’d see him in person just eight times a season.
Have you seen Christian Ponder? He even looks like a quarterback, as crazy as that sounds, but you get my drift…I hope! It was only a matter of time before McNabb was benched and coming in as Ponder did during the mauling in Chicago two weeks ago was a thankless task and while his stats against Green Bay last week were barely noteworthy (13 of 32, 219 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), he showed spirit. Not much you might say, but spirit is what’s instilled in leaders and Ponder looks better than the sum of his stats.
Adrian Peterson had a monster game against Green Bay, rushing for 175 yards and how often will a back gain so much and come away with so little? But against the Packers of late, nothing should come as a surprise as they’re head and shoulders above anybody else.
So, back to my opening question – have I underrated Minnesota? Vegas see a little over a field goal difference between the teams, but asking a Newton inspired Carolina to cover only 3.5 points at home is risky. Conversely, I actually have a sneaking feeling for the Vikings to win from scratch, but that’s just a hunch and a handicapper needs to lean towards logic. That said, the Panthers rank 29th against the run so Peterson could have his second huge day in a row, thus not putting Ponder in third and long situations, so maybe my hunch is dipping its toe in cold, hard logic after all.
Minnesota ranks 29th against the pass, which plays right into the hands of Newton and Smith so both teams’ offensive strengths look primed to thrive and a high scoring affair is on the cards. I can’t remember the last time I recommended you watch a 1-6 team at a 2-5 team and those of you watching your hard earned go back and forth during this one should be gripped.
My verdict? This is one of those where I could end up looking either like a king or the joker of the pack and I feel like flipping a coin for my choice. The Vikings possess the league leader in sacks in Jared Allen with 11.5, but Newton’s scrambling skills negate that somewhat so that’s another notch for the Panthers. OK, I take Newton and Smith over Ponder and Peterson. Carolina to cover.

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