Week 8: Miami Dolphins at New York Giants

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Vegas Line: Dolphins + 9.5

Rob’s Line: Dolphins + 10.5

This is Miami’s second trip to MetLife Stadium in two weeks, following their 24-6 loss to the Jets on Monday Night Football, an outcome that did flatter Mark Sanchez and co. somewhat as Dolphins’ QB Matt Moore couldn’t convert when in the red zone and that includes Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis returning an interception 100 yards for a touchdown.
What has been lost though in all of the hoo ha surrounding Revis’s huge ‘pick six’ is that Miami held a 3-0 lead at the time and were driving for 10-0. Yes, it was only the first quarter and many good teams have overcome such obstacles, but Miami is not a good team. That said, how good are the Jets? That’s an argument for another page and one that I won’t touch on here.
However, what I will say is that I do agree with Vegas in not going over the top as to how bad the Dolphins may appear to be, especially against the spread. As I say, they’re not a good team and it’s tempting to offer them 13.5 points on the road, especially against the better of the NY teams, but a closer look at their recent results does suggest that value may possibly be available on Sunday.
We’ve all read about and seen the dramatic closing moments of Tim Tebow’s ridiculous (come on, that’s the only description for it) comeback for the Broncos in Miami last week. Tebow was worse than diabolical for 55 minutes and the Dolphins held a 15-0 lead until those minutes had elapsed so what he did has only added to his immediate legend, but, much like I wrote above, that’s an argument for another page.
Miami should undoubtedly have won last week and the Jets were flattered by their margin of victory on MNF two weeks ago. Prior to that they lost by ten in San Diego, which, to a handicapper, is a double edged sword. The Chargers could wipe the floor with this Dolphin team if it really wanted to, but they could with any team if truth be told (bar Green Bay); they possess Super Bowl talent, but a Pro Bowl mindset so do we judge the Dolphins highly for running the Chargers close(ish) or look at San Diego as a poor team to place money on? The latter, most definitely.
Let’s talk about the Giants, the ones with playoff aspirations. Who do you suppose is the fourth ranked QB in the NFL? Rodgers, Brady and Brees (now that would make a fine office of solicitors!) occupy the top three spots and you’d get no flak from me should you put forth the names of Roethlisberger, Fitzpatrick or Stafford. Heck, even Alex Smith of San Fran fame could be considered (ranked 9th). No, Eli Manning of the Giants has quietly gone about his business this season and while his ratio of eleven touchdowns to five interceptions isn’t anywhere near Aaron Rodgers’ output, he’s accumulated a QB rating of 101.1 and fourth place.
The Giants have been involved in three very close finishes in their last three contests and two of those were against Arizona and Seattle (a shocking 36-25 home defeat) so they’re hardly putting away bad teams and coming off a bye, as they are, it’s difficult to gauge how smooth they may be offensively. That shouldn’t really be in question, but some teams do struggle after the week off.
This should be easy, but, in a season of results that have driven me to the brink, I’m torn here. The Giants are way better, but will they cover after a bye week? I want to say that they will, but ultimately I don’t trust them to do so and take the Dolphins with the points on offer.