Week 8: Washington Redskins vs. Buffalo Bills (in Toronto)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS vs. BUFFALO BILLS (in Toronto)
Vegas Line: Redskins + 6

Rob’s Line: Redskins + 7.5

Buffalo heads for its annual ‘home’ game in Toronto on the back of offering quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick a six year contract extension (the dollars are irrelevant as it’s extremely unlikely he’ll see all of the $59 million he’s reportedly signed for) so all is rosy in the Bills’ camp. They didn’t commit to drafting a QB in this year’s draft, believeing Fitzpatrick to be the guy and that decision is looking solid right now as Buffalo sits at 4-2 having already beaten Oakland, New England and Philadelphia this season, albeit all at home.And that’s where home field advantage raises its head here.

Buffalo’s committed itself to playing five games at the Rogers Centre in Toronto (2008-2012), but, so far they haven’t won there during the regular season (I refuse to count preseason), going down to the Dolphins, Jets and Bears. Do the Bills struggle for motivation when going across the border? It’s worth mentioning although this does appear to be the most settled, and talented, Buffalo outfit for a number of years so perhaps it’s a moot point. However, this isn’t just about picking a team to win from scratch, we have to consider the handicap, which, to me, looks skinny in Vegas.
Washington has been hit by a raft of injuries and are without left tackle Trent Williams, guard Kory Lichtensteiger, tight end Chris Cooley, running back Tim Hightower and receiver Santana Moss. Injuries to key starters such as these would derail most teams’ seasons (yes, the Packers went through the same last year, but that’s a franchise on a different planet) and I do fear for Washington, but they are able to call upon Fred Davis, who leads the team in receptions, to replace Cooley and run the ball by committee so can turn to Ryan Torain and rookie Roy Helu for yards on the ground.
Further encouraging news for Washington is that Buffalo ranks 30th defensively against both the run and pass and John Beck, who’s replaced Rex Grossman at quarterback, posted pretty good numbers in Carolina last week, going 22 of 37 for 279 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and that’s against a Panthers D ranked 12th against the pass. However, the loss of Moss is significant.
I like Buffalo a lot and the camaraderie appears to be strong and with Fitzpatrick now the undoubted voice of the offense, this is a team with even more direction than it had, say, on Thursday. That’s a very good thing as quarterback is the most important position on any team, but, judging the outcome of this one in betting terms, I am wary of the Bills not travelling well to Canada and that’s no miles at all considering that the Bucs have to go to the other side of the pond for their (annual?) ’home’ fixture!
I love running back Fred Jackson and he should once again post good numbers as Washington ranks 17th against the run. In addition, his 5.7 yards per carry average leads the league in rushers who’ve had at least 100 carries so why shouldn’t his production see no let up? Also, this is a Bills team looking to avenge a heartbreaking loss in New York to the Giants two weeks ago and they’ve been kicking their heels during the bye week waiting for this one.
I fully expect Buffalo to claim the W, but will they cover the spread? Tentatively, I take them to do so, but they will be without their usual fanatical home support. However, I see them as still hurting from NY and wanting to take it out on another NFC East team.