October 31, 2011

Week 8: Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos

DETROIT LIONS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Vegas Line: Broncos + 3

Rob’s Line: Broncos + 3.5

Few players, no, hang on, no player divides opinion quite like Tim Tebow. The column inches are endless and I won’t be adding my tuppence worth here on whether I like him or not as he’s questioned on too many levels for my liking, from his mechanics down to the very soul of the man himself. Throughout his footballing life though, he’s found a way to win and last week in Miami…he found a way to win.

He looked truly dreadful for 55 minutes last Sunday and then, as though he was playing out the unlikeliest screenplay ever written (take your pick there, folks, especially in sports movies), he took his team to two touchdowns in the last 2 minutes and 44 seconds of regulation. And he capped that by running in a two point conversion himself to tie it at 15-15 before they won in overtime. Another day in the not so ordinary football life of Tim Tebow.
It’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll end up becoming the long term answer at quarterback for Denver, but in the short term he’s the answer to Broncos’ fans prayers. My doubts about him being the long term answer are based purely on the fact that, in the NFL, you ain’t ever going to wing it week on week, my friends! However, as I wrote after he replaced Kyle Orton in the narrow home defeat to the Chargers, he’s made Denver worth watching. That said, with five minutes remaining last week, his stats read 4 of 14 for 40 yards so perhaps they’re worth watching in extremely short bursts.
So, Denver has its problems, with or without Tebow and Detroit can say the same about themselves. They were matching the Packers step for step in the NFC North after five weeks, but have lost their last two at home, to the 49ers and Falcons, both of whom share playoff aspirations with the Lions and should all three make the postseason, the chances on coming up against one of those two again is very likely.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford was injured on the last offensive play against Atlanta last week and limped off the field and his status for this week seemed questionable at best. However, he has practiced this week and word has it that on Friday he came through a full work out unscathed so despite him being listed officially as questionable, I fully expect him to start. One starter who won’t suit up once again is running back Jahvid Best, which means the team’s rushing hopes lie in the hands (feet?) of Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams. Both posted good yards per carry averages last week (Morris 5.6, Williams 4.9) and they’re quite a handy one-two punch and with Denver ranked 18th against the run, they could have a successful afternoon, but the headline grabber remains wide receiver Calvin Johnson.
He comes into this one on the back of three consecutive 100 yard outings, but now the Lions aren’t winning all of a sudden, the noise around him has quietened. That may not be a bad thing to this observer and even if Detroit has to call upon Shaun Hill, Stafford’s backup, I don’t see his production dropping because, if you throw it up there, Johnson usually comes down with it.
There’s guaranteed to be an excitable Mile High crowd rallying around their houdini quarterback, but this Lions team boast a pass defense ranked ninth in the league and Tebow doesn’t have the greatest receiving corps to throw to so he may look to make things happen on his own and he’s not afraid to run with the ball himself.
Detroit’s recent skid concerns me from a handicap viewpoint and I’m reluctant to place too much faith in them so I’m going to jump on the Tebow bandwagon this week and take the Broncos with the points on offer. A leap of faith on such a maverick player is bad form on my part, but it’s all part of the magic of football.

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