SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS 
Vegas Line: Cardinals + 3.5
Rob’s Line: Cardinals + 5.5
What’s going on here? Are Vegas really asking San Francisco to win by just four points to cover the spread? How can that be? Granted, I’m only offering Arizona plus 5.5, but my spread was 6.5 until it looked as though the 49ers will have to make do without inside linebacker Patrick Willis. Now, I can’t speak for the oddsmakers in Nevada , but from what I’m able to make out, the line opened at 3.5 and hasn’t moved.
Let’s try to make sense of the spread and why perhaps we shouldn’t all just lump on San Fran. Arizona’s on its hottest streak of the season…well, it’s only streak of the season, if we’re honest. They’ve won four of their last five, including victories in Philadelphia and against Dallas last week, although the latter was a tad fortunate and the Cowboys will have been kicking themselves all week since. Their solitary loss in that span was against these very same 49ers, when they went down 23-7 at a sodden Candlestick Park three weeks ago.
Kevin Kolb returned at quarterback for the Cardinals last week, which does help the offense and he had a better day than I anticipated (not least because I had him pegged as inactive!), going 16 of 25 for 247 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT and a quarterback rating of 109.9, his second highest rating of the season. Kolb missed the first meeting between these two and it was a day when backup John Skelton had a shocker; after six completions and three interceptions he was pulled for third stringer Richard Bartel.
Normal service was resumed at running back last week when Beanie Wells ran for 67 yards on 20 carries against the Cowboys, one week removed from his 228 yard day against the Rams. He’s up against the Niners’ league leading run defense this week, one that hasn’t, astonishingly, allowed a rushing touchdown all season. If, as expected, Willis is absent, it makes Wells’ job a whole lot easier and he may pierce them for a TD.
One factor that could have a bearing on proceedings is the intangible of San Francisco looking past this one and ahead to next week to what could well be a Super Bowl preview. Next Monday on primetime they play host to Pittsburgh and with the NFC West already in the bag, all they need to do is keep the New Orleans Saints at bay to secure the number two seed in the NFC, thus avoiding having to play on wildcard weekend. However, despite them possibly looking ahead, the Niners know that the Saints are hot and they can’t really afford to slip up and the disparity between these two teams makes me think that there’s no way they should do so. Arizona has nothing to play for except, of course, playing the part of spoiler.
In games where I see a spread as peculiar or where my opinion differs quite markedly to Vegas, I like to think that I’m not coy about advising where to place your hard earned, but this one makes me nervous. Yes, I have shaved off a point from my original spread, but I’m never going to ask Arizona to protect 3.5 points against a 49ers team this strong. We shall see, of course, but I take the boys from the Bay Area to cover.
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