INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS 
Vegas Line: Colts + 16.5
Rob’s Line: Colts + 15.5
As if Indianapolis weren’t having a difficult enough season as it is, they travel to Baltimore this week on the back of games against Carolina and New England. Carolina, I hear you say. Yes, you read that right. Cam Newton hasn’t just broken the record for rushing touchdowns in a single season by a quarterback on the roll of a dice.
Having not covered the spread in their previous six games, the Colts went to New England last week as three touchdown underdogs and wouldn’t you know it, they covered easily, losing by just seven points. However, they trailed 31-3 after three quarters and were almost allowed to catch up, but it’s what I thought may happen and is why I urged caution when looking at it. Could the same happen this week? Is Vegas overestimating the line? I don’t think so, but it’s a large spread and looks attractive at first glance.
Quarterback Dan Orlovsky had a rather fantastic day last week, going 30 of 37 for 353 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT and a quarterback rating of 113.2. That’s encouraging form going into the cauldron that is Baltimore, but it mustn’t be forgotten where the Patriots rank in defending the pass…dead last. There’s not a chance of Orlovsky repeating that on Sunday, even bearing in mind the Ravens’ propensity to play down to their opponents’ level. That said, they appeared to shed that reputation in Cleveland last week, running (literally) all over the Browns on their way to 290 yards rushing with Ray Rice picking up 204 of those.
Indy ranks 26th defending the run so Rice is sure to see a lot of carries and should the Ravens wish to give him some time off, then Ricky Williams is there to spell him, something he did a good job of last week against Cleveland’s equally porous run defense.
If the spread looked attractive at first glance, there is something else to factor into this. Much like Pittsburgh at home to Cleveland on Thursday, the Ravens will be looking beyond this one to next Sunday and their primetime matchup in San Diego. Yes, the Chargers are a shadow of the team they ultimately should be, but they’re still a stiff test and the Colts are a mere irritant on the road towards bigger fish. It’s one of those intangibles that sways me the way of the road team here so no matter what Rice did last Sunday and the promise of further rushing riches this week, I’m taking Indy to protect the spread.
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