NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 
Vegas Line: 49ers + 3.5
Rob's Line: 49ers + 1.5
How good does this look to begin Divisional Playoff weekend? Regular readers will know that I wished for this matchup at this stage of the postseason, only in the Superdome. It would've been a no contest and I will have to confess here straight away that I want New Orleans to win. Why? There's a couple of reasons. Firstly, because I've been talking up the Saints all season and I actually believe the 31-21 debacle in St. Louis in Week 8 to be a good thing; they haven't lost a game since, winning nine in a row and they've only been pushed close on two of those occasions.
The second reason goes back to the 1980's. Reader, please bear with me, but my love for this sport dates back to the early years of that decade. I recently wrote that I was raised in a Miami Dolphins household, my step father and brother both enamoured by Dan Marino and the Marks Brothers, Duper and Clayton. I decided to take the blue path to the Pacific North West and settled on the Kingdome, but I was sadly too young in January 1985 to be allowed to sit up until the early hours to watch Super Bowl XIX between those Dolphins and the all-powerful San Francisco 49ers.
I vividly remember the next morning when my step father told me how Marino had led Miami to a 10-7 lead at the end of the first quarter only for them to lose the game in the second, a passage of play the 49ers won 21-6. It made the second half a formality and I can still see the disappointment on his face. From that moment on, I was never going to like the Niners.
That dislike only intensified when the NFL decided, and rightly so, on realignment in 2002 when the Houston Texans became the league's 32nd team. The Seattle Seahawks would move from the AFC West to the NFC West and thus, a brand new rivalry with the 49ers was born. And so, here we are for what promises to be a humdinger of a clash by the Bay.
Yes, I'm nailing my colours to the N'Awlins mast on Saturday, but how does the spread look? In a nutshell, this is fascinating stuff. I'm surprised that the line's so high in Vegas and it's as though people forget how good San Fran really are. They won seven of eight at home this season, the only loss being that ludicrous comeback win by Dallas in overtime in Week 2. The Saints have scored 45 points in each of their last three games, but that particular bus stops right here on Saturday.
Those points were all scored in the Superdome and in the game prior to that they scored 42 points in Minnesota's Metrodome so they clearly enter San Francisco with an offense absolutely on fire. However, not so fast. The week before swatting away the Vikings, they struggled to a 22-17 win on grass in Tennessee and it's that that we need to focus on here. That and their two other games on grass prior to that, a 26-20 loss to the Buccaneers (which takes a few seconds to compute now) and a squeaky 30-27 win in Carolina.
The grass field will slow New Orleans down and they'll be up against a Niners run defense that leads the league, allowing just 77 yards per game. Consider that last week the Saints pummelled the Lions for 167 yards on the ground and something has to give this weekend; it likely won't be San Fran's run defense.
Not surprisingly, much, if not all, depends on the performance of Drew Brees. In his last five outings he's thrown 19 touchdowns to 3 interceptions and will be buoyed at facing a pass defense that ranked 16th in the regular season. However, this is a playoff game on the road against a very good team who are going to play extremely tough, hard nosed football. This contest offers a wonderful contrast of styles, borne out by the fact that the 49ers are likely to rely heavily on running back Frank Gore (and quite possibly rookie Kendall Hunter) to pound the ball on the Saints early and often. They'll want to control the clock as much as possible, thus keeping Brees and his cohorts off the field.
Yes, I hope the Saints win, but I feel that the offer of a field goal plus a half in favour of these Niners is too generous. I want to leave this game well alone as I don't wish to sit there and cheer on San Fran due to me having a few pounds on a team I don't actually want to win! However, to any Niners fans reading this you have to be made up at being this underrated. To all you neutrals, I have to say that I can't see past a generous 3.5 points.
New Orleans has momentum from last week, but San Francisco are rested. The Saints will have to look to pass, the 49ers will want to run and run and run. This is a classic playoff encounter to look forward to and while my heart lies in Louisiana, my head says to take the points on the Bay Area boys.
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