DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 
Vegas Line: Broncos + 13.5
Rob's Line: Broncos + 12.5
Who'd have thought it? Well, me...almost. That Denver beat Pittsburgh last Sunday night justified my faith in the nine point spread afforded the Broncos by Vegas and it did look just too big from the very beginning. As I wrote, I didn't expect Denver to actually emerge triumphant, but the fact that they did means a week long Tim Tebow story and I for one am not growing sick of it at all.
Do I dwell much on what happened last week? Yes, of course...well, a little at least and not just because to do so throws up a fascinating statistic. Denver mustered the grand total of 8 yards in the first quarter and thinking about it as I have been throughout the week, I've concluded that that must almost have been part of coach John Fox's game plan: as long as the Broncos could hold the Steelers to not many points during the initial fifteen minutes, they would have lulled the league leading Steeler defense into a false sense of security. As it turned out, Pittsburgh led 6-0 as the second quarter began and they would never have seen coming what happened during the next fifteen minutes.
Tebow shocked them (and, let's be honest, the entire football watching world) as the Broncos ripped off twenty unanswered points to take a two touchdown lead into halftime. And all this against the Steelers. They had dared Tebow to beat them through the air and he did exactly that...and that's without even mentioning overtime, the shortest overtime period in the history of the NFL. Yes, in the history of the NFL!
What is it about him that stirs up such vitriol? He's fantastic for the league, for the sport and for the highlight reels. And yes, he's forced my hand to cheering on the underdog Broncos this Saturday night. As for the spread, I go a shade under Vegas, but even that makes me nervous as you just don't know what's coming next. Can Denver pull the upset? I seriously doubt it. Can they cover the spread? I don't doubt it. Which brings me on to that fascinating statistic.
The Steelers possessed the league's number one ranked defense during the regular season, giving up just 172 passing yards per game. Last week they surrendered 316 yards to Tebow through the air...on only 10 completions. New England has to be more than a little concerned, giving up as they are 294 passing yards per game, 31st in the league. In fact their overall defense ranks 31st although they are more stout defending the run (17th).
One minus concerning Denver's passing attack is that leading receiver Eric Decker is extremely unlikely to play due to a sprained MCL that knocked him out of last week's win meaning that Eddie Royal (22 catches), Daniel Fells (21), Matt Willis (18) and Lance Ball (17) will have to really step up in support of Demaryius Thomas who finished last week with 204 yards on four receptions. After becoming Tebow's favourite target in light of Decker's injury, Thomas can expect some extra special attention this week. However, with Willis McGahee and Tebow himself able to run the ball (combined, they led the NFL in rushing during the regular season), it'll be intriguing to see what Fox has devised for his offense come Saturday night. New England now can't fail to be ready for the deep ball, but how often will Fox look to use it this week? Or in which quarter?!
Oh, it could be so easy to write about how Denver's going to cover the spread this week and I could harp on about a weak Patriots D, but, lest we forget, Denver's own defense is up against Tom Brady in his own back yard. Tom Brady in his own back yard accompanied by his second ranked passing attack with weapons by the name of Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch to throw to. Gronkowski's a monster in the red zone and snared 17 touchdowns during the regular season, breaking tight end records galore along the way for TDs and yards. He's almost unstoppable anywhere near the goal line and when the Patriots do reach the last fifth of the field, the Broncos are going to need to get inventive and fast.
While I'm in no doubt that Denver are more than capable of covering the spread, it's difficult to back them with confidence as Tebow is just as likely to regress by 50% as he is to repeat what he did last week. In fact, there's practically no chance he'll be able to repeat what he did last week, at least in terms of yardage; yes, he may well complete ten passes though.
Last Sunday's images will live long in the memory, but it mustn't cloud our judgement here, particularly as the Broncos are travelling to a hostile atmosphere, not to mention that these very same Patriots won 41-23 in Denver just four weeks ago. There's four tough games to bet on this week and I don't like this spread half as much as I do the one in San Francisco so, for a small wager, I'm riding on the Tebow bandwagon for another week.
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