DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 
Vegas Line: Broncos + 7
Rob’s Line: Broncos + 7.5
I would have given Denver an 8.5 start on the handicap, but with running back Darren McFadden not suiting up for Oakland this week, I’ve had to keep it down to a fraction over a touchdown. McFadden went down early in that 28-0 home shocker to the Chiefs and despite being able to rest during their bye last week, his sprained right foot hasn’t sufficiently recovered so Michael Bush will be carrying the load.
That’s not too huge a problem though as the Raiders love Bush as a backup and his career stats in that role are none too shabby. That said, he’s no McFadden so I feel justified in shaving the spread a fraction.
Both teams enter this one with question marks at quarterback and the column inches reserved for both are enormous, particularly in Denver, where it’s impossible to escape Tim Tebow. The hyperbole that surrounds him is freakish and it appears that he doesn’t attract indifference…you either love him or you hate him. I, personally, am indifferent, but I have no love for the Broncos. My interest is purely in watching him perform as a pro quarterback and I need to know a thing or two as a handicapper and what’s obvious is that apart from five plus minutes at the end of regulation plus overtime in Miami two weeks ago, he’s really struggled, which makes the win he pulled out against the Dolphins all the more remarkable. However, no matter how stunning that was, you can’t ignore the fact that he doesn’t look like an NFL quarterback in the making.
Tebow will definitely start this week and despite facing a Raider defense that ranks a lowly 25th against the pass, I have very little faith in him. I’m ashamed to say that I bought into the hype last week and saw Detroit’s two game skid as a warning sign for their season (which it may very well be) and tipped the Broncos plus the points over the Lions. Ouch!
Oakland’s bye couldn’t have happened at a better time last week although they were probably expecting to see McFadden back this week. However, we know that Bush should deputise adequately so it’s not the run game where the focus will be. Jason Campbell’s season ending injury against Cleveland in Week 6 made way for what will, in my opinion, go down as one of the most ridiculous trades of all time, when the Raiders gave the Cincinnati Bengals their first round pick next year and a second rounder in 2013 for the rights to Carson Palmer to replace Campbell. Palmer didn’t start against the Chiefs, but replaced Kyle Boller in the second half and promptly threw three interceptions.
Palmer’s a savvy veteran, if not a very mobile one anymore, and will have done everything in his power to familiarise himself with the playbook over the last two weeks, but this whole game presents me with a huge problem as it’s not only Tebow whom I have little faith in. I know that Palmer was extremely rusty against Kansas City, but I didn’t believe he was the answer the moment the Raiders traded for him and those reservations won’t disappear any time soon.
(I’ve probably now fixed it for Palmer to torch the Broncos’ secondary and if he does, then I’d be the first to admit that perhaps I got it a littlw wrong).
The Raiders need a win badly here as the race for the AFC West is now very congested after KC’s win over San Diego last Monday night blew the division wide open. I honestly can’t tip any Tebow-led offense at the moment, even with a touchdown start so am relying on Bush to make enough yards so as not to place Palmer in too many third-and-long situations. With reservations, I take the Raiders to cover.
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