CINCINNATI BENGALS @ TENNESSEE TITANS 
Vegas Line: Bengals + 3
Rob’s Line: Titans + 0.5
I love matchups like these. When handicapping a game featuring a heavily favoured team, it’s sometimes not too difficult to have a figure in your head where you see that team favoured perhaps by a touchdown or ten points and, generally, I find myself not differing too much from the Vegas sportsbooks. Like I say, that isn’t the most difficult part. It’s games like these, where the margin of victory purports to be smaller, where you can find real value and where I do sometimes find myself seeing things very differently to Vegas and this occasion, I’m delighted to report, is one of them.
So, let’s put it out there from the start: I love Cincinnati here and can’t fathom how they’ve been given a field goal start. OK, I can fathom it and here’s why I think that is; I just don’t get it, that’s all.
Tennessee won well last week, 27-10 over the Colts, but I believe that win to be a little inflated. Indianapolis was playing its third consecutive road game and last week came hot on the heels of their 62-7 drubbing in the Superdome. Even though I did like the Colts with the points on offer, everything was in place for the Titans to bounce back from their own drubbing, that 41-7 home reversal to the Texans. In addition, Cincinnati’s on the road again having travelled cross country to Seattle last week, but the fearsome home crowd there did little to faze the Bengals and they came away with an impressive 34-12 victory.
I watched that game and Cincy’s defense is fast and hungry and definitely comes as advertised. Their run defense ranks second in the league and after the troubles Chris Johnson has had running the ball for Tennessee, including a perceived hesitancy when hitting the gap, I don’t see him creating much noise this Sunday. Coach Mike Munchak has stated that Johnson remains the starter, but with backup Javon Ringer performing better than Johnson when he’s called upon, he’s hinted heavily at them splitting carries as the season progresses. I don’t think there’s a more perfect time than Sunday as Johnson’s confidence looks shot to pieces and he’ll surely get very little change from the Bengals’ front seven.
Offensively, Cincinnati ranks surprisingly low (21st in both running and passing), but how much of that is due to their defense giving them only a short field to work with? Rookies (quarterback) Andy Dalton and (wide receiver) A. J. Green are developing nicely and Bengals fans should feel very excited at what lies ahead in the coming seasons, and this is without even considering the two first round draft picks they now have next April (thank you, Oakland).
Running back Cedric Benson returns from his league enforced, one game suspension and with something to prove, he finds himself up against a Titans’ run defense ranked 27th in the league. I’m writing all of this happy in the knowledge that I can already count on my tip having a three point start and everything looks rosy in Rob’s garden right now. However, I must warn you of one fly in the ointment and that’s the Bengals’ schedule.
After this, they host Pittsburgh and then travel to Baltimore, season defining games if ever there were any. The AFC North clearly hots up from next Sunday so my only fear is Cincy having one eye on what lies ahead. That said, I’d still be happy offering Tennessee a half point start and letting the Bengals let rip on defense.
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