Week 12: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Vegas Line: Browns + 7

Rob’s Line: Browns + 9.5

The Ohio derby Mk. II. Cincinnati shocked Cleveland on opening weekend, winning 27-17 and, considering how each team’s respective season has transpired, it’s strange to now think that it was such a surprise.
Yes, the Bengals are currently only two games clear of the Browns and when you consider that the Cowboys were two games behind the Giants in the NFC East just three weeks ago and have now usurped them (for the time being), there must be reason for optimism in Cleveland of catching their state rival. That may be the case, but it’s not how I see it at all. The gulf in class between these two is a lot wider than that between the Cowboys and Giants.
I am a little surprised at the spread here and I make Cincinnati very good value because of it. Yes, the Bengals are on a two game skid, but those losses came against the Steelers and Ravens. As disappointing as those results undoubtedly were, they only lost each encounter by seven and in Baltimore last week they had to do without leading receiver A. J. Green.
Green and fellow rookie, quarterback Andy Dalton, have given football fans in Cincinnati a million reasons to be happy about this franchise’s immediate future and the good news this week is that Green has participated in practice and he fully expects to play. If he does, it means he’ll be up against Cleveland’s stud cornerback Joe Haden, the most important cog in the Browns’ number one ranked pass defense, but it’s not as though Dalton’s short of weapons elsewhere in this offense.
Stat time: Cleveland has scored 54 points in its last five games, so let’s call that eleven per contest. Over that same span, Cincy’s racked up 126 points, so let’s call that 25 per contest. Against a strong, all round Bengal defense (3rd against the run, 11th against the pass), I don’t see Cleveland scoring more than eleven points – in fact, they may even score less. So, asking the Bengals to score, at most (in my opinion) just eighteen points to cover the spread is favourable than taking Cleveland with the points.
Cincinnati scored 17 points against Pittsburgh two weeks ago and 24 in Baltimore last week and with Green back in the lineup, I certainly don’t see them losing for the third consecutive week. I believe Vegas to have overrated the Browns here and take the Bengals to cover.

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