HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 
Vegas Line: Jaguars + 6
Rob’s Line: Jaguars + 7.5
If only Matt Schaub were around for this one. It would’ve been oh so easy to call and I would’ve advised to put your hard earned on Houston no matter what spread Vegas had have put in our way. The Packers aside, the Texans were about the most balanced team in the NFL and a real threat to not only make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, but quite possibly the Super Bowl.
Schaub is now out for the season having damaged the Lisfranc ligament in his right foot, which means the offense falls in to the hands of Matt Leinart. Leinart’s a veteran backup, but he had many troubles in Arizona after being picked tenth overall in the 2006 Draft and he’s fortunate to find himslf bang in the middle of such a talented team. However, the loss of Schaub is huge and it figures that Houston’s coaching staff will be relying on the double headed monster at running back of Arian Foster and Ben Tate more than ever.
Not only is Leinart fortunate to be where he is, but he clearly has somebody somewhere on his side as Foster and Tate should be able to take huge chunks of pressure away from him, leaving him with only third and short situations. That said, Leinart has the propensity to mess even that up so it’s a delicate time to be a Texans fan.
Jacksonville, as ever this season, possess the league’s lowest ranked pass offense and against Houston’s second ranked pass defense, it’s almost impossible to imagine where they’re going to get yards from through the air. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew has carried this offense as much as one man can this season, but in the first meeting between these two (a 24-14 Texans win) he only managed 63 yards on 18 carries and with Houston ranked fourth against the run, he’ll need to run as hard as he has all year to get anywhere 100 yards.
Any success Jacksonville has had this season has been built around their defense, which currently ranks 15th against the run and fourth against the pass. However, that defense has been hit by injuries…no, that defense has been horribly decimated by injuries and is in a real mess heading into this one and with Andre Johnson making his comeback here for Houston, he could terrorise a Jags secondary relying on third stringers this week. Yes, this should happen even with Leinart throwing him the ball.
The only reason Vegas is reticent in asking Houston to cover by double digits is because of Leinart, but with Foster, Tate and Johnson on the field all at the same time again and Jacksonville horribly banged up, I love the Texans to cover.
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