BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS 
Vegas Line: Bills + 9
Rob’s Line: Bills + 8.5
How can Buffalo have any chance in this one? Frankly, they shouldn’t have. Over their last three games (all losses) they’re not even averaging nine points per game and all this after beginning the season so promisingly. That 5-2 start has been replaced by mediocrity and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, since signing a new $59 million contract, has probably made the Buffalo front office regret even paying him 59c more.
In those three losses he’s thrown for 2 TDs and 7 INTs and this week he comes up against a Jets pass defense that ranks fifth in the league. In addition, and probably the biggest blow of all, is the loss for the season of running back Fred Jackson with a broken bone in his right leg. Second year player C. J. Spiller (who was actually picked ninth overall in the 2010 Draft) will now become the focal point of the running game, but he’s talented and can go the distance at any opportunity. The caveat with this is that he hasn’t come as advertised, but this is because Jackson has simply outplayed him and that goes all the way back to training camp. The hope is that the offense shouldn’t miss a beat, but that’s easy enough to write.
After a three game resurgence that saw them reach 5-3, including an impressive 27-11 win in Buffalo three weeks ago, the Jets have stalled somewhat and last week’s loss in Denver came courtesy of another Tim Tebow inspired comeback and it’s one that would’ve embarrassed a good Jets defense. Looking to get that one out of their system, they couldn’t be playing the Bills at a better time.
Before a loss at home to the Patriots (which could happen to anybody) the Jets were unbeaten at MetLife Stadium and that run will surely continue this week. However, the question remains as to whether or not the Bills are good value with a 9 point start. In a divisional matchup between two teams with the same record, I’d almost always side with the team receiving more than a touchdown start, but this one’s different.
Buffalo could suddenly snap out of their malaise and Spiller could explode for two long touchdown runs, but this comes from somebody who really enjoyed watching the Bills when they were hot and is pure wishful thinking. In relation, on a two game skid, asking the Jets to cover by two scores isn’t something I’d endorse either and if you look at the respective teams’ offensive statistics, the Jets rank below the Bills in both rushing and passing.
Tentatively, I’m going to side with the green half of New York to cover the spread.
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