I will stop explaining the above acronym soon as I’m wary of patronising anybody, but as I’m unaware of who may be reading these posts for the first time after only two weeks of the season, some readers may appreciate the explanation.
The worst of
times for spread betting is, naturally, if the first paragraph is to be
believed, anywhere before Week 4, but I’m having a good run, having gone 6-1
over the first two weeks and 4-0 last week. Yes, I do comment on every game,
but have picked out just seven contests I thought justified laying down your
hard earned for. The one game that’s been my undoing? The Seahawks (-2.5) in
Arizona. In hindsight, that tip was extremely misguided, but hindsight is the
perfect science and I was never any good at that in school so why would I
suddenly wish to hold its hand and take it out to dinner now?
The Cincinnati
Bengals did their utmost to fool me last week, covering by half a point, the
merest margin there is, beating Cleveland by seven, but being available -6.5
right up until kickoff.
Right, let’s
delve into Week 3 and attempt to pick out a couple more gems. This doesn’t
include the Thursday night affair in Carolina, but that wasn’t a game I was
looking to bet on anyway. However, as a point of interest, I would’ve tipped up
the Panthers to cover the spread (-2). The Giants didn’t miss a beat despite
missing a couple of key starters, but, after failing to cover the spread in the
first two weeks, I’m in no mood to trust them just yet.
For this post
and future reference, I’ll preface each game with the best available line (BAL)
for each team.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at DALLAS COWBOYS
BAL Buccaneers
+9...BAL Cowboys -7
The line on
Tampa Bay, at first blush, looks like incredible value, but why would some
bookmakers tempt us into almost buying money?
Dallas will be
hurting after last week in Seattle, both figuratively and literally and the
Bucs will be smarting after losing a big lead to the Giants. However, all that
matters here is that Tampa covered the spread in that game and are 2-0 ATS,
each time as underdogs, exactly the same as this week. This is almost too good
to be true, which makes me wary as, personally, I wouldn’t really want to lay
the Bucs at anything more than +6.5.
The intangible
here is that this is the Cowboys’ home opener after two tough road games so
they will invariably be much better than last week (for that, read Buffalo last
week vs. KC after their mauling at the Jets in Week 1) while the Bucs are on
the road for the second consecutive week against what is perceived to be a
playoff calibre team; consecutive road games have a habit of making a mockery
of any given line.
I really want
to advise on backing Tampa and may yet have a small wager myself, but I’ve been
stung on these bets before so, for interest purposes only, let’s just keep a
close eye on this one. Should the Bucs win SU (straight up) then they really
are for real.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
BAL Jaguars
+3...BAL Colts -2.5
Which
quarterback do you trust more here? Blaine Gabbert +3 or Andrew Luck -2.5...at
home? My very first thought on this matchup was Jacksonville +6.5, but, unlike
the line afforded the Buccaneers in Dallas, I’m not wary here, purely because
Indianapolis are playing in their own surroundings...for the second consecutive
week. In addition, to trust the Jaguars +3 means placing your faith in a
defense that gave up a whopping 216 yards on the ground last week, albeit to an
elite Houston Texans backfield.
Jacksonville
ranks dead last in the league in total offense and, while Indy’s defense can’t
be compared to Houston, New England and San Diego (the top three defenses in
the league right now...hang on, the Patriots’ second ranked D lost to Kevin
Kolb last week...didn’t it...?), it’s not their defense I’m necessarily relying
on.
Anybody brave
enough to bet on Jacksonville this week will be laying money on a team that was
0 of 9 on third down last week and had only one drive of longer than four
plays, a literally astonishing statistic (thank you to Darin Gantt of Pro
Football Talk for those).
The Colts are
currently giving up 273 yards per game through the air, a figure not likely to
be threatened by Gabbert, who averages 147 passing yards per game. I plain
don’t get how this game has been pegged to be so close. Indianapolis represents
tremendous value and is quite possibly the bet of the week.
BUFFALO BILLS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
BAL Buffalo
-3...BAL Cleveland +3
Old news is
that Cleveland are 0-2. However, they’re 1-0-1 ATS and were a half point from
being 2-0 on that score. The Browns could prove to the bettor’s friend this
season and I was all over them +9 in Week 1 at home to the Eagles.
However, I did
go against them last week with Cincy, a bet that scraped over the line, which
makes me wary of betting against them this week. Yes, even when missing stud
cornerback Joe Haden and up against a Buffalo team that scored 35 points last
week. A better view of the Bills this week is to look at their last game on the
road, an abomination of a performance at the Jets on opening weekend.
I suppose,
unsurprisingly, the key to the whole contest is the performance of C.J.
Spiller. He’s having the breakout year of all breakout years, averaging 10.1
yards per carry over the first two weeks of the season, a number so staggering
that I struggle not to laugh at it. Success on that scale is impossible to
sustain and it has to come to a shuddering halt at some time. Why wouldn’t it
be this week?
It might not
be, but there’s no way I’m betting against Cleveland right now and especially
when the memory of Buffalo being mauled 41-7 during the third quarter of their
last road game is still too vivid. The Jets allowed the Bills to flatter
themselves late on in that one by giving up in the fourth quarter.
NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
BAL NY Jets
-1...BAL Dolphins +3.5
No man is an
Island. Unless your name is Darrelle Revis.
Revis missed
last week’s let down in Pittsburgh with a concussion, but has stated that he
definitely starts this week.
The importance
of Revis to the Jets’ secondary can never be underestimated and whereas he can
often be counted on to shut down one half of the field, that looks to be a
nailed on certainty on Sunday when you consider he’ll be up against Davone
Bess, who lines up at flanker for Miami.
Ryan Tannehill
fared fairly well last week against the Raiders, but the Silver and Black were
missing Ron Bartell, their top cover corner, a complete 180 to what Tannehill
will see this week.
If the current
Dolphins could ever generate some crowd noise (heck, even a crowd would be
nice), you’d think entertaining the hated Jets would entice a few more through
the turnstiles.
This once
proud franchise suffer from arguably the worst home field advantage in the NFL
and, as simple as this analysis might be, fan apathy (even against a division
rival) plus the return of Revis plus a pumped up Rex Ryan (despite the weight
loss) makes the Jets giving up just one point look like a small steal.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
BAL Chiefs
+9...BAL Saints -7.5
N’Awlins are
staring down the barrel of a horrible season already. This game should see them
peg back a W (SU), but their schedule immediately thereafter ain’t pretty:
Green Bay, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Denver, Philadelphia and Atlanta.
OUCH, ouch,
ouch, OUCH, ouch and OUCH.
And if that
wasn’t enough, they’re giving up 186 yards per game on the ground so far (worst
in the league), a statistic that could look very familiar again this week
because the Chiefs roll into town averaging 151 rushing yards per game.
Something will
have to give here and it does figure to be both defenses as each one has
yielded 75 points over two games, another league worst.
I’m advising
to leave this one alone, although if pushed, I take KC and the points. However,
an interesting bet here is the over/under, which is worth a small buy at 53.
CINCINNATI BENGALS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS
BAL Bengals
+4...BAL Redskins -3
Washington
probably pulled the biggest shock in Week 1 when they dismantled the Saints in
the Superdome only to show the rest of the NFL in Week 2 how difficult it is to
win on the road in consecutive weeks, even when up against a team perceived to
be lesser than the now dominant you.
As if the fall
back to Earth wasn’t enough, the dreams they held, built around a heavenly new
quarterback who floated like an angel amongst the Saints, were dealt a
considerable blow this week when it was announced that stud OLB Brian Orakpo
(pectoral tear) and DE Adam Carriker (torn quad tendon) were both lost for the
season.
The Bengals
have suffered their own defensive woes recently, losing weakside linebacker
Thomas Howard, last year’s leading tackler, and the effect of this will be felt
the longer the season wears on.
Anybody with
an inkling for the ‘Skins here is able to factor into the equation that this is
RG3’s home debut and emotions will be running high all around FedEx Field.
I have no
interest in betting on this one. The Bengals do look to be good value,
particularly against a depleted Washington D, but this is still a tough road
game for a team who embarrassed themselves in Baltimore two weeks ago and then
made Brandon Weeden look half decent last week. Then again, maybe he is.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at ARIZONA CARDINALS
BAL Eagles
-3...BAL Cardinals +4.5
Here’s why
Arizona is good to bet on this week:
Philly’s
coming off an emotional win over the Ravens.
They’re
travelling to face a Cardinals team who still aren’t being taken seriously
despite shocking the Patriots in their own back yard.
Dallas Reynolds
(exactly) is filling in for the injured Jason Kelce at center for the Eagles.
Arizona are
2-0 ATS; Philadelphia are 0-2 ATS. Spread betting form sides with the Cards.
Would you
trust Michael Vick with your hard earned?
Yes, after
last week, and ridiculous as it sounds, I have more faith in Kevin Kolb than I
do Vick to cover the spread.
I think that’s
everything.
ST. LOUIS RAMS at CHICAGO BEARS
BAL Rams
+9...BAL Bears -7
My Super Bowl
XLVII tip ain’t looking so hot right now. Chicago was bullied and battered in
Week 2 by a Green Bay team motivated to the hilt by the (stoopid) words of Jay
(stoopid) Cutler. I’ve rarely seen a player have his words shoved straight back
down his throat in quite the manner of last Thursday.
I’m glad it
happened this early and not in January, although Brian Urlacher himself
admitted that perhaps the Bears aren’t as good as they thought they were.
Like New
Orleans, Chicago should pocket the W here, but that’s not the salient point.
Can they win by eight? I’m not so sure and it’s why I like St. Louis with nine
points.
Sam Bradford
has looked extremely assured so far, his 2011 nightmare moving farther away in
his rear view mirror and his numbers give me confidence in supporting his team
here. He’s completed 71.7% of his passes, has a TD-INT ratio of 4-1 and is
facing a Bears pass defense that ranks 20th in the league.
Matt Forte,
perhaps my favourite player not wearing a Seahawks jersey, is missing and,
while Michael Bush is a capable running back, he ain’t no Matt Forte.
I take the
Rams and the points.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
BAL 49ers
-6.5...BAL Vikings +7
Adrian
Peterson’s been shooting from the hip this week about how San Francisco this
season won’t have seen anything like the running game Minnesota will be
bringing to the table this week.
Maybe he’s
talking about the juggernaut of a running game that’s averaging a whopping 109
yards per game going against a Niners D giving up just 63.5 yards on the
ground. Yeah, that’ll be the one. Fortunately for Peterson, he has the ability
to back those words up, but you get the feeling that he’s had a little too much
time to think while rehabbing his knee.
At face value,
San Fran look good being asked to only win by a touchdown, especially as
they’ve already covered the spread against the Packers and Lions in the first
two weeks. However, I’m wary. I just am.
Probably
because those two wins were against playoff calibre teams and the Vikings are
nothing of the sort, meaning they may take their foot off the gas a little this
week.
Plus, they’re
on the road at the Jets next week, kicking off at 10 a.m. PT, a game they’ll
really need to focus all of their energies on.
DETROIT LIONS at TENNESSEE TITANS
BAL Lions
-3.5...BAL Titans +3.5
This line
looks to be a little off. Maybe I’m wrong. Admittedly, both teams are 0-2 ATS,
but Tennessee have been blown away twice in a row. Perhaps that’s why the line
on Detroit looks skinny. I mean, can the Titans look any worse? Can Chris
Johnson look any worse? Tennessee averages 29 rushing yards per game. There
must be an improvement here soon. But how soon is soon? 0-16 soon? Yes, a
little dramatic.
It’s actually not
easy for Detroit to travel south after a tough loss in San Fran, but they can
surely cover here by four...can’t they? I know, I shouldn’t be posing all these
questions.
Betting on
this one frightens me. Really frightens me. I can’t have my 6-1 record being
tarnished by advising anything here.
Matt
Stafford’s my fantasy QB and is the only reason I’m watching this one.
Who’ll cover
the spread? You tell me.
ATLANTA FALCONS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
BAL Falcons
+3...BAL Chargers -2.5
It’s way too
early to call either team a covering machine, but they are both 2-0 ATS so
something’s gotta give on Sunday, which straight away leads me to the Falcons
and the points on offer.
Both offenses
average less than 100 rushing yards per game, but we all know that that isn’t
Atlanta’s MO.
No, Mr.
Regular Season (sorry, Matt Ryan) has superfluous weapons at his disposal and
will look to the air first. Ditto for Philip Rivers. Well, at least until he
has Ryan Mathews available again at running back, which will surely be the case
this week with Mathews fully participating in practice up until Friday.
The
aforementioned Air Ryan will be on full display on Sunday as there’s little
chance of the Falcons having any luck on the ground against a Chargers run
defense yielding a measly 41 yards per game.
This has the
makings of a shootout and, as much as I lean towards Atlanta, the best thing to
do here would be to buy on the over/under at 47.5.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS at OAKLAND RAIDERS
BAL Steelers
-3.5...BAL Raiders +4.5
Only the
Raiders’ mother could love their son enough to cover the spread in this contest.
What this
matchup does is unlock memories of 1970’s playoff contests, Immaculate
Receptions, Snake Stablers and when smashmouth football meant exactly that. To
times when it was the law that ALL linemen had to have beards. If you didn’t
you wouldn’t make the final roster. I’m not making this stuff up. Go ask your
Dad.
How much do we
read into Oakland’s second half abomination in Miami last week? Carson Palmer
was 24 of 48 for 373 yards and the Raiders ended up scoring 13 points. It’s
because they ran for only 10 more yards than those points accrued while Reggie
Bush tore through their defense for 172 yards on 26 carries.
The Dolphins
controlled the ball and the clock beautifully in that second half and simply
wore down the Silver and Black in the heat. Ah, perhaps there’s the
clue...(Silver and) Black in the heat.
Pittsburgh
pulled the Jets back to earth, thumping them 27-10 and Ben Roethlisberger had a
whale of a time, although it was made a little easier for him before even a
ball was snapped seeing as he would be throwing against a secondary minus
Darrelle Revis.
The Raiders
will have to go some to reach three figures on the ground this week...they
average 34 yards rushing per game and all this with Darren McFadden in the
backfield. The Steelers are giving up 92 rushing yards per game so Palmer could
very well be throwing the ball 48 times once again.
Being a
Seahawk, it’s difficult to like the Raiders at the best of times and, while I
wouldn’t advise lumping on Pittsburgh here, I prefer asking the Steelers to win
by four than asking the Raiders to keep it close in order to cover.
HOUSTON TEXANS at DENVER BRONCOS
BAL Texans
-1...BAL Broncos +4.5
Finally, a
true test for Houston, having blown past the Dolphins and Jaguars in the first
two weeks. Yes, the schedule isn’t their fault and they wouldn’t have paid any
money into NFL coffers to be afforded a comfortable start to the season, but
the Texans being 2-0 at this stage was the biggest certainty of the season...to
this point.
In fact, more
pertinently to us handicappers, is the fact that I am almost disregarding their
stats over the first two weeks as any kind of form guide. We knew they were
good, we knew they were a playoff calibre team, so what’s new? Nothing.
This matchup
fascinates me as do the lines on offer. Look at the disparity. Steer well clear
of this. If you don’t and you end up winning money on either team, then you’re
a better man than me. Then again, that probably isn’t that difficult.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at BALTIMORE RAVENS
BAL Patriots
+2.5...BAL Ravens -1.5
I was all over
Baltimore plus 2.5 in Philadelphia last week and it paid off handsomely,
although not as handsomely as I would’ve liked when they led by ten at
halftime. Ray Rice wasn’t used properly enough protecting that lead and I can’t
see that happening again in a hurry.
There’s no way
I’m overreacting to New England’s shocker at home to Arizona last week. Losing
Aaron Hernandez didn’t help matters, but never underestimate Bill Belichick and
Tom Brady immediately after a loss that doesn’t make sense.
I like the
Patriots and the points a lot here. Not enough to go all out or to include them
as a sure fire thing, but if I’ve had a bad Sunday afternoon, then this bet
will be my saver.
I’m becoming
increasingly protective of my 6-1 record ATS so far, which translates to me
becoming increasingly nervous about predicting this week, which I know doesn’t
make sense, but the day to change all that passed too long ago to remember when
it actually was.
My ‘Aaron
Curry’ this week is the Rams +9 and my bet of the week is the Colts -2.5. In
addition, I advise the Jets -1 and the Cardinals +4.5.
Please gamble responsibly.
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