January 08, 2012

Week 17 Picks - Part 2

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA – The Falcons were almost taught a footballing lesson in the Superdome last Monday night and they’ll be smarting from that. The Buccaneers have lost their last four games by 19 27 16 and 32 points so there’s no way I’m betting on them plus 11.5; I would only be tempted by them with a start in the region of 15 or 16. It is dangerous backing Atlanta after an emotional loss last week, but I can’t see any other course of action. I take the Falcons to get last week out of their system before a likely trip back to New Orleans on wildcard weekend.

BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI – The Ravens cannot afford to slip up here because if they do, Pittsburgh could usurp them and take the number two seed in the AFC, thus avoiding having to play on wildcard weekend. That said, a slip up could happen as Baltimore is only two weeks removed from a mauling in San Diego so the Bengals +2 is attractive. However, I have more faith in the Ravens holding on to their current seeding than I do in Cincy full stop this week, but I’m only placing a small wager on this one.

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND – The biggest news entering this contest is that Ben Roethlisberger has practiced all week and while he’s officially omly listed as probable, those proverbial wild horses won’t prevent him taking to the field on Sunday. Should the Steelers win, they need results elsewhere to go their way to help secure the number one seed, but one of those results would be the Bills winning in New England so let’s put those top seed dreams to bed shall we? What may be more interesting than all of the above is the perhaps little known fact that Cleveland have covered the spread in five of their previous six outings and that includes a 14-3 loss to these very same Steelers three weeks ago. You can grab the Browns +7 in places and I’m going to be all over that.

SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND – Boy, was I not happy with the Chargers last week or what?! They needed to win in Detroit to give Seattle any chance at all of making the playoffs and while the Seahawks went down to the Niners anyway, I watched that game with a heavy heart as I could see that the Lions were on their way to leading San Diego 24-0 at half time and with each update came a feeling of resentment towards the Bolts, the team who can snatch your dreams away from you when you’re not even a fan! And on Christmas Eve of all nights! It didn’t make for a very silent night, I can tell you! Oakland need to win this and hope that the Chiefs can beat the Broncos on the road; that’s the only scenario that gives the Raiders a home playoff game on wildcard weekend. However, the Chargers +3 is way too good to miss and, putting aside last week’s bitterness, I simply must advocate a punt on them with that field goal start.

KANSAS CITY at DENVER – The Chiefs, and Kyle Orton in particular, would like nothing better than to spoil the playoff hopes of a bitter division rival. When I say spoil I actually mean destroy because should KC pull the W and the Raiders beat the Chargers, Denver goes home until next September. Now, Broncos fans have got to be a little worried. Not that they know deep down that should they be playing beyond January 1 that there’s very little chance of them going any further. No, that won’t concern them right now as you can’t beat actually making the postseason. Their biggest issue will be that their team has shipped 40 points in each of its last two games. With the Chiefs just two weeks removed from beating the Packers, I like them with a three point start here. It’s not going to be the biggest of wagers, but Orton will be motivated beyond belief and I’d rather rely on him than Tim Tebow right now.

SEATTLE at ARIZONA – Does this one hold any excitement to the neutral? Thought not. And the spread of Seattle +3 looks about right so I am a little indifferent as to what happens here, if I’m honest. As odd as that may seem, I actually wouldn’t mind if the Seahawks lost here as that would equate to a higher draft pick in April. I could pick the ‘Hawks and the points, but I fear that would be a case of my heart ruling my head plus I have in the back of my mind that last week’s loss to San Fran was an emotional one. My advice would be to not risk anything here, but at a push I take the Cardinals to cover by more than a field goal.

DALLAS at NY GIANTS – It’s hardly surprising that this is the game that everybody’s talking about. Winner takes all and the loser goes home. However, if you check out Adam Schefter on ESPN, he has a very interesting take on the game he has the most interest in this week and if you’re anything as big as a Draft fan as I am, then it’ll interest you, too. The Giants hold the tiebreaker at the moment, courtesy of their 37-34 comeback win in Dallas three weeks ago. That was a game and a half and should they dish up anything as tasty on Sunday night, it’s going to add to what is already a great rivalry. The Cowboys are saying that Tony Romo will be at “full strength” after injuring his throwing hand against the Eagles last week. In fact, it wasn’t the Cowboys at all offering up that opinion on Romo’s status, it was owner Jerry Jones. Hang on, he is the Cowboys! That’s an extremely optimistic diagnosis and should the hand flare up at any stage in the game, it severely weakens Dallas’ chances. The Giants have been incredibly unreliable when being asked to cover the spread at home this season and they’re favoured by three this week. If Romo was fully healthy, I’d lump on the Cowboys, but the injury worries me. It’s risky to bet on either team here and I’m more inclined to just sit back and enjoy this one for what it is because I can’t wait for it to start. However, I’m siding with the Giants to cover…pennies only though guys!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

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