I use ‘my beloved Seattle’ because that phrase seemed to work for me last week when they shocked the Bears 38-14 at Soldier Field so, heck, I’m using it again this week. The Vegas line opened at Seahawks + 3 and I was aching to write that Seattle simply had to be backed with that start, using the play on words of ’reasons to be cheerful, plus three’. Sadly, Vegas have trimmed their line to 2.5 and and bet365 have gone even shorter, offering Seattle + 2. Yes, I’m biased towards these ospreys of the sea, but would openly encourage anybody to get on the home team.
Ever since Monday night came and went, I’ve read that the 49ers are for real and capable of beating any team. Whoa, hang on, hold your horses! Come kick off we’re only going to be thirteen days removed from a 21-19 loss to the Cardinals and all of a sudden, after beating up on a half healthy Ben Roethlisberger, we’re meant to believe they’re the second coming of the 1960′s Green Bay Packers? I’ve rarely read such baloney!
Seattle simply has to win this one to have any chance of reaching the playoffs (Detroit needs to lose, too) so CenturyLink Field will be akin to the lunatics taking over the asylum. The Niners are in for a torrid time from ‘The 12th Man’ and this will translate to intensity levels among the Seahawks being off the scale; rarely will each player have felt so alive!
It won’t do anything as bad as ruin my festive season should San Fran pull the W as you learn to deal with adversity following the Seahawks, but I love them with the start. Granted, I’d have been made up had the line remained at a field goal, but let’s not forget that we’re going to be receiving enough presents over the coming days without Vegas joining in on the act.
This handicap fascinates me somewhat. Vegas opened the line offering Cleveland + 14.5, but all that’s available now is 12.5 or, in some places, 12. As regular followers will know (thank you to you both), I’m a big advocate of placing faith in teams with two touchdown starts and that’s clearly what’s happened this week with the betting public. Colt McCoy will again be missing for the Browns…actually, let’s look at that. Did you see James Harrison’s hit on McCoy when the Browns travelled to Pittsburgh two weeks ago on Thursday? McCoy actually came back into the game (the fallout from that has been huge, but I’m not commenting on that here) before, thankfully, he eas pulled before the game finished.
It was a jarring hit and is unpleasant to watch; no matter how many times you see it, you don’t become desensitised. Once McCoy was pulled, he was visibly shaken and I’m glad he’s not playing for the second consecutive week. Yes, this allows me to write about this wonderful sport and I love the challenge of picking apart the spread, but player safety usurps any words I may care to type or tips I believe to be very good to sure things.
Like many NFL followers, the brutality of the sport is part of the attraction and seeing players like Ronnie Lott and Lawrence Taylor on TV as a kid was awe inspiring. These players defined their positions (Lott at safety and Taylor outside linebacker) and defenses evolved simply because of these two men. However, with more and more retired players showing signs of ill health due to too many hits to the head in their careers, the league has quickly realised the importance of recognising concussion-like symptoms on the sideline and McCoy’s is the latest in what seems to be a frequent occurence; Harrison has previous and he’s unrepentant…I daresay Taylor’s a fan.
McCoy’s status for next week, the season finale, will already be in doubt and not just for the fact that they play Harrison’s Steelers again. I say to rest McCoy for next season. It’s not a meaningless game for the Browns franchise, but it is for McCoy if he wishes to fully recover. Enjoy an elongated holiday, Colt.
As for the spread, I see both angles, which I appreciate doesn’t help you any! Cleveland’s played hard in five of its last six (the 24-10 home reversal to these very same Ravens the exception, in my opinion) and I expect them to do the same here. However, Baltimore’s smarting from the hammering it took in San Diego last week and they have some wounded pride to restore. I loved the opening line in Vegas, but make them about spot on with the Browns + 12.5. I would advocate leaving this one well alone, but may place a few pence on the Ravens if pushed. That said, they’ve hardly been world beaters at covering the spread this season so buyer beware.
CHRISTMAS WRAP UP
I’m horribly stuck for time this week so, aside from the above, all I’m able to offer you for the remainder of the games is my tip along with a score prediction. The predictions are something I may add on to my previews next season, but that may depend on how they look this week! Here goes:
OAKLAND at (the mighty?) KANSAS CITY – Chiefs – 2.5 may look a little lofty, but you don’t destroy Green Bay’s unbeaten dream and then play the part of underdog at home next week to the Raiders. I have to believe they’ll do the same this week. Raiders 17-23 Chiefs
DENVER at BUFFALO – Broncos – 3…I’ll take a bit of that, thank you very much. Broncos 17-13 Bills
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE – Jags + 7.5 is a line I’d prefer to leave alone. Vegas has this spot on and I find it almost impossible to pick. However, as crazy as this looks, I take the cats and the points. Jaguars 10-17 Titans
ARIZONA at CINCINNATI – Cardinals + 4 looks skinny so I like the Bengals to win by at least five. Cardinals 10-24 Bengals
MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND – Something I don’t think I’ve mentioned before is that I was brought up in a Miami Dolphins household and while I never followed that path, it was close. The Seahawks retiring the number 12 shirt for the fans and the old Kingdome being something of a fortess (most Sundays!) was the hook for me, but if I ever had to admit to having a second team, it would be the famous ol’ Miami Dolphins. New England taught the Broncos a thing or two last Sunday and that was something of an emotional win without it truly being so in the actual context of the term (if that makes sense) and for that reason I’m taking the semi-hot Dolphins plus 9.5. Dolphins 17-26 Patriots
NY GIANTS at NY JETS – I love that the Giants are the away team at home. No, I love that the Jets are the home team when playing at home to the team who should be at home…aw, I don’t know what’s going on here! Giants + 3? Get me on that train! Giants 24-14 Jets
MINNESOTA at WASHINGTON – Vikings + 7. How bad can that be? Vikings 17-20 Redskins. Don’t be shocked if the Vikes pull the upset.
TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA – I’m all over the Panthers – 7.5. Come on Cam, deliver those goodies in time for Christmas morning. I make the Bucs 10 point underdogs. Buccaneers 10-30 Panthers
ST. LOUIS at PITTSBURGH – Rams + 12.5. Beware betting against the Steelers at home the week after a letdown. Big Ben doesn’t play this week so Charlie Batch deputises and because of that, I’m put off taking either team here. However, based on the respective talents on both squads, I take the home team…just. Rams 7-20 Steelers
SAN DIEGO at DETROIT – The Chargers + 2.5 is attractive, if only because they’ve amassed 109 points in their last three games. I would like to be all over them, but will urge caution. I am also swayed by them as they need to beat the Lions for the Seahawks to have any chance of reaching the playoffs. Chargers 28-27 Lions
PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS – A suddenly hot Eagles + 1.5? My, I think I’ll have some of that. Eagles 24-21 Cowboys
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY – The Packers minus 12 looks to be like buying money, but I’m not so sure. The Bears ended up being embarrassed at home to Seattle last week so why wouldn’t a far superior Packers team win by the same margin (24 points)? Now that they can’t go undefeated, will the Pack be as motivated for this? They shouldn’t be, but this rivalry is as old as the hills…so they should be. I hate being anywhere near this spread and would advise to leave well alone, but I’m tipping somebody so I take the Bears and the points. Bears 10-20 Packers
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS – The Falcons + 7 looks fantastic value. Falcons 24-28 Saints
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