January 08, 2012

Week 15 Picks - Part 1

Hi NFLers

Sadly, there’ll have to be a different look to proceedings this week. I say sadly because, as we enter the festive period, I’m immersed in time constraints at every turn and that includes both professionally and outside of that. I’ve had to give some thought as to the best approach to take and what I’ve decided on is to hopefully look at as many games as I can in one post as opposed to addressing each game separately.

A strange thing happened on Thursday, related to what I wrote when previewing the Saints/Titans game last week. Jacksonville had beaten Tampa Bay 41-14 last Sunday…what happened on Thursday? They lost to Atlanta 41-14. Here’s what I posted last week: Go check out Tennessee’s last three results. And what’s scarier is that this game could also very easily end up 23-17…to New Orleans.
Before last Sunday, the Titans’ three previous games had all finished 23-17, two of them victories. It couldn’t have come closer to happening four times in a row last week as the Saints won 22-17. Maybe I should start predicting scores instead of trying to circumnavigate the spread!

As I’ve already mentioned the Saints above (feel free to take that literally at this time of year), let’s start with NEW ORLEANS and their trip to MINNESOTA. Adrian Peterson is back and definitely plays this week, which automatically injects new life into the Vikings offense. The Saints are on the road for the second consecutive week and will they have one eye on their matchup with the Falcons in the Superdome next Monday? Possibly, but as this game is indoors, it does suit them enormously. However, they’ve only won by more than seven points on the road just once all season (in Jacksonville) so nabbing the Vikes with a touchdown start is something I recommend.

How close can TENNESSEE come to another 23-17 scoreline in INDIANAPOLIS? It’s difficult seeing the Colts scoring seventeen points, but I’m ruling nothing out. The Titans do still possess wildcard aspirations and cannot afford to slip up here. Indy marches inexorably to the number one overall pick in next April’s Draft and this game means absolutely nothing to them. I will have my eye closely on the scoreline and fully expect the Titans to cover the 6.5 point spread. Motivation for them is that fellow AFC wildcard hopefuls (Oakland and the NY Jets) face tricky games this week.

On to my beloved SEATTLE. They travel to CHICAGO this week on a nice run of form, but I have to admit that I had them pegged initially as bigger underdogs than Vegas do (‘Hawks + 3.5). Marshawn Lynch is in full Beast mode of late and his recent achievements are made even more remarkable considering that he’s operating behind an offensive line ravaged by injuries. The Bears have mustered just thirteen points in their last two games so, looking at it a little deeper, the Vegas line seems to make sense. However, it makes me think that the oddsmakers may just as well set this game from scratch and let us make our own minds up. I can’t wait to watch this and while I do believe that the Seahawks can win, I’m wary of the fact that kickoff equates to 10am Pacific Time for them. Still, I’m full of Christmas cheer and am backing my boys all the way with the points on offer.

On to TAMPA BAY and what has reverted back to, over the past two games, the uninspiring team we saw in mid season. DALLAS visit this week and I’m in a right old quandry. The Cowboys are - 7 on the handicap, but they’ve only covered the spread once in their past seven games, hardly the stuff of betting legend and it makes me incredibly wary this week. However, there’s no way I’m backing Tampa either so, if you’d like my advice, it’s this: leave this game alone. If you’re a fan of either team, go ahead and bet with your heart. All I’m going to offer is the tiniest of tiny wagers on the Bucs and that’s only because of Dallas’s appalling spread record recently.

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