DETROIT LIONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 
Vegas Line: Lions + 10.5
Rob’s Line: Lions + 12.5
In exactly the same fashion as the Bengals/Texans encounter preceding this one, these two teams have met already this season when New Orleans overcame Detroit 31-17 in the Superdome five weeks ago. The week after that, the Saints squeaked past the Titans 22-17 on the road, but they flew home from Tennessee knowing that their remaining three games would keep them inside, the environment where they excel (ahem, the 31-21 shocker of the century in St. Louis aside, that is), with home games against division rivals Atlanta and Carolina following a trip to the Metrodome to take on the Vikings.
What’s significant about that is the fact that in those last three matchups the Saints averaged 44 points per game. Good luck if you’re a Lions follower this evening, but at least you’ve made the playoffs and these are exciting times in Detroit.
This is a difficult line to read and I toyed with the idea of not offering such a high line on Detroit, but it’s impossible to ignore how potent New Orleans are at home coupled with having to possibly sit there as Drew Brees takes the Saints to an early 10-0 lead and you’re left wondering why the hell you didn’t see the 10.5 spread as an easy cover in the Superdome. That last part is, of course, purely conjecture, but, by the same token, highly feasible.
The Saints haven’t lost since the aforementioned Rams shocker on October 30 and while there’s been a couple of close calls on the road since then, they’ve not been troubled at home since the Texans took them almost down to the wire in Week 3…and how long ago does that seem now?
Detroit has had little trouble scoring themselves recently, averaging 35 points per game through their last four and they’ll simply need to produce something similar to keep up with Brees and co. Good news for them, and it’s the best they could have hoped for, is that the roster appears to be pretty healthy…well, as healthy as it’s been this season. One addition for the Lions here from their previous meeting is Ndamukong Suh, but he wasn’t banged up for that one, just serving that suspension for his Thanksgiving Day madness. That could be a huge factor, but disrupting Brees and his offensive line at home is easier said than just placing a beast at defensive tackle. However, it helps and Detroit were rather he was playing than not at all.
This promises to be something of a shootout because, as we expect the Lions to have to keep pace with Brees, with the Saints only ranking 30th defensively against the pass, this opens up space for Calvin Johnson and lanes for Brandon Pettigrew and Matthew Stafford doesn’t normally have much trouble locating either one so those Lions fans hoping to see the upset, you do have a couple of juggernauts of your own to rely on. Heck, even Nate Burleson has hauled in 73 catches this year.
However, Detroit’s pass defense ranking 22nd will be the greenest of green lights for Brees although Louis Delmas returning at safety for the Lions does give the Saints QB a little something to consider.
I wouldn’t dissuade any fan of the travelling NFC North outfit to back their own team with the points, but I’m going against that as I’m just not happy betting against the Saints in the Superdome.
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