BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 
Vegas Line: Ravens + 7
Rob’s Line: Ravens + 5.5
This matchup brings together the two elements of perhaps the most famous adage in NFL history: offense wins games, defense wins championships. To touch on the betting angle early, the line opened at 7.5 in Vegas so some folks somewhere have clearly had a nibble on Baltimore and brought the line in a little…and I’m not surprised.
Yes, the discussion about this game has revolved around how the Ravens’ defense matches up against Tom Brady and his aerial attack. The fact that Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and co. are facing a Patriots D ranked 31st in the NFL during the regular season seems to almost have been forgotten and yet it shares the same importance considering how Baltimore eventually overcame a very good Houston defense last Sunday. That proved to be an almighty struggle for them and you have to expect the Ravens to find yards easier to come by this Sunday.
Rice is key to how Baltimore get on the scoreboard and I’m not reading anything into his stats last week, when he rushed for only 60 yards on 21 carries. No, still fresh in the memory is how he gashed Cincinnati for 191 yards in the final game of the regular season. The Patriots are far from horrible against the run, but Rice will need to do all he can to keep them honest, thus giving Flacco the opportunity to shred a pass defense that, quite frankly, is horrible.
We saw last week how the team with the worst defense in the NFL succumbed as Green Bay limped out of contention and there is every chance of the same thing happening this week so yes, I really like the Ravens and a touchdown start. In addition, there a delicious stat doing the rounds this week. For the Patriots to advance to the Super Bowl, they’ll have to do something they’ve not achieved all season long…beat a team with a winning record.
They did that last week, I hear you say, when beating Denver. The Broncos had gone 9-8 over the course of the regular season and wild card weekend, but they finished Week 17 with a .500 record and that’s what matters in this league. On the two occasions where they faced teams with winning records, they went 0-2, losing to the Steelers and Giants in mid season. Baltimore simply have to be ready for this and you just know that their defense will be.
Old news is that Brady has weapons and arguably none greater than Rob Gronkowski. This season he’s set records for a tight end for receiving touchdowns (17) and receiving yards (1,327). He has a nice partner in crime, too, in fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez. Both players are from the same 2010 draft class and as the NFL is a copycat league, look for more teams to begin evaluating just what or who they have at tight end over the coming months. Jimmy Graham in New Orleans has also helped highlight the position and tight end is evolving rapidly.
Hernandez is more the all rounder and superior blocker and together he and Gronkowski pose an inordinate amount of problems for defensive coordinators everywhere. The Ravens will see their fair share of two tight end sets and when you throw in slot receiver Wes Welker (Brady’s favourite target), the middle of the field is going to be busy whenever the Patriots have the ball; Ray Lewis will be licking his chops in anticipation at such a proposition and he’ll be fired up…not that he needs any encouragement.
During the week Bill Belichick was talking up Ed Reed as one of the greatest safeties ever to play the game and, while his admiration of Reed is something of an open secret, it’s not a bad ploy on his part. He sure as hell wouldn’t want to fire anybody up on this Ravens defense so as an opening tactic before the sixty minutes begins, I doff my cap to you, Mr. B.
New England haven’t faced a defense this good since that aforementioned loss to Pittsburgh in Week 8 and it’s going to be fascinating to see what looks Brady gets. If the Ravens are able to stymie the passing game, they’re half way to Indianapolis on February 5.
The Patriots should win and the Ravens received something of a bad press after practically limping past Houston, but that criticism only adds to me liking Baltimore all the more. Flacco is an oft criticised QB and he would’ve heard more vitriol coming his way this week, but a closer look at his figures from last Sunday paints a picture that’s none too shabby. OK, he may only have completed 14 of 27 passes for 176 yards, but his two touchdowns and zero interceptions is a vitally important statistic and played a large part towards him compiling a QB rating of 97.1. A comparable line this week is what’s required for Flacco to be spoken about (yet again) in the same breath as Trent Dilfer and if that’s news to you, go look up the Ravens’ 2000 season that culminated in them toying with the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV.
I love being armed here plus seven points. However, I won’t be choking on my corn flakes either should the road team with the chip on their shoulder pull the W.
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