JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS 
Vegas Line: Jaguars + 9.5
Rob’s Line: Jaguars + 9.5
There’s big news surrounding both of these teams this week, but let’s cut to the biggest of them first. Did you see the way the Jaguars outmuscled and ultimately outfought the Ravens on Monday Night Football? Special mention goes to cornerbacks Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox and outside linebacker Daryl Smith. They were simply outstanding and did what a good football player must always do: do it when it matters most.
The defense ranks sixth in the league against the pass and tenth against the run and they’re going to keep many games close this season, but the question remains as to whether quarterback Blaine Gabbert can do enough to support the workhorse that is Maurice Jones-Drew at running back. On the offensive side of the ball, he was equally outstanding against the stingy Ravens run defense (ranked third), posting 105 yards and giving as good he was expecting to get from a tough unit.
Difficult to usurp the euphoria surrounding that Jacksonville defense right now, matters are a little more serene around Houston as they sit very happily atop the AFC South after their complete dismantling of Tennessee on the road last week. The outcome wasn’t a huge surprise, the manner of it a little more so. With the victory comes a playoff berth that is tantalisingly close (even at this early stage) and would be the first in franchise history. They head the division and talk this week has been how open the race for that title now is after Monday night, but really? Yes, Jacksonville are only two games behind Houston, but that won’t be anywhere near the case come the end of the season as the Texans possess something the Jaguars don’t: an offense. Jones-Drew is the Jaguars offense.
Which brings me on to my other big news. Andre Johnson, Houston’s deep threat, standout wide receiver finally returned to practice this week. It’s making ripples around the league, but there ain’t no news finer than this around Reliant Stadium. He was sorely missed in losses to Oakland and Baltimore before the Texans were finally able to unleash arguably the league’s best one-two running back punch in Tennessee.
Arian Foster (115 yards) and Ben Tate (104) wreaked untold havoc on the Titans and with Johnson soon to be back in the fold, quarterback Matt Schaub can look to throw to him along with underrated tight end Owen Daniels, Jacoby Jones and even Foster, who ranks third on the team in receptions and receiving yards.
Jacksonville does rank tenth in the league defensively against the run and they were magnificent in holding Ray Rice to just 28 yards last week, but that was at home on the biggest regular season stage there is. The twin threat that is Foster and Tate are an altogether different proposition and can prove to be relentless.
After this week, Houston play host to Cleveland so 6-3 is looking highly likely and that would further cement their hold on the division and the virgin territory that is the playoffs…and a home game at that as division champion. Can Jacksonville replicate the tempo of Monday night and keep at bay a Houston team that could just be beginning to purr once again? As good as the Jaguars can be at stopping opposing offenses, they’re coming off they’re most emotional win in quite some time and I see a drop off from them this week and am going for the Texans to cover the spread. The determining factor is that I don’t trust Gabbert enough yet and particularly this week.
The Jaguars are playing extremely hard and I have a new found appreciation for them but, call it a hunch even, I see a comfortable Houston win.
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