Week 7: Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Vegas Line: Colts + 14

Rob’s Line: Colts + 12.5

I have to confess that this game doesn’t excite me from the perspective of the teams starting from scratch as New Orleans really ought to win this outright with relative ease. However, a closer look at the statistics tells a different story of this Saints team, who are still, in my opinion, the team most likely to travel to Lambeau Field for the NFC Championship Game.
For a team with a 4-2 record and aspirations as lofty as playing in late January, here are a couple of those aforementioned statistics: offensively, they rank 18th in rushing, 14th in rushing defense and 19th in pass defense. The Saints opened the season in Green Bay and ran the Packers close, losing 42-34 and if they were to play there again this week, you’d expect the same points differential in Green Bay’s favour.
New Orleans have a lot of work to do if they wish to emulate their Super Bowl XLIV triumph of two seasons ago and they’re not doing themselves any favours and I mean that quite literally as, last week in Tampa, tight end Jimmy Graham was tackled out of bounds and crashed into coach Sean Payton, who subsequently tore his MCL and fractured his knee. Now, this shouldn’t have much of a bearing on the team, but, despite having an offensive coordinator in Pete Carmichael, it’s Payton who calls the offensive plays and he’ll now be doing so from the booth upstairs, instead of being on the sideline for as long as his knee takes to heal. As I say, this shouldn’t have much of a bearing, but this is the NFL and you can’t rule anything out.
In addition this week, a rather curious thing happened to the Saints. Olin Kreutz, the starting center who was a free agent pickup from the Bears after the lockout, decided to call it a day and simply walked away from the team. He won’t be coming back and this does leave a significant hole in the middle of the offensive line as Kreutz is a good football player and his thirteen years of experience aren’t easily replaceable. Why, you may ask, am I including this when previewing a game where many other components are far more important. It’s because for all of the highlight reel play and razzmatazz surrounding this sport, games are won and lost in the trenches and, while the quarterback is the most important player on the team, his offensive line is most important to him.
The 0-6 Colts are playing nothing like their record suggests and this is not a team lacking in talent either. Curtis Painter has come in with the unenviable task of replacing Peyton Manning at quarterback and he’s surprised at least this observer while throwing for five touchdowns and only one interception and with a receiving corps boasting Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, he’s blessed with options. Running back Joseph Addai has struggled somewhat, rushing for just 249 yards so far this season, but he did miss last week’s loss in Cincinnati and is hoping to be back this week.
I’m never happy going with teams being asked to cover a two touchdown spread and just look at how the Packers eased off against the Rams last week, despite covering by more than 14 in the end. Yes, the Saints shouldn’t really encounter many troubles moving on to 5-2, but I’m not comfortable with the handicap and take the Colts with the points on offer.