October 26, 2011

Week 7: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

 GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Vegas Line: Vikings + 8

Rob’s Line: Vikings + 9.5

I was sorely tempted to give the Vikings a bigger start and, let’s face it, probably should have, but I’m relying on the old adage of not underestimating an underdog at home to a powerful divisional rival, so, if I’m happy to ask the Packers to win by eleven to cover the spread, quite why Vegas are only asking them to win by nine leaves me scratching my head.
They must really be expecting the divisional factor to play heavily on the outcome. This though, is a Vikings team I favoured heavily to win on the road in Chicago last Sunday night on primetime and they duly embarrassed that prediction, being destroyed 39-10 and I watched in semi-horror at the brutal unravelling of my opinion on the game.
So, how do Vegas expect the Vikes to keep it this close against Aaron Rodgers and company? Perhaps they have inside knowledge of the kind of day running back Adrian Peterson will have against a Packers run defense that actually ranks fourth in the league, surrendering just 83 yards per game. Or maybe they know that rookie QB Christian Ponder, who now has the opportunity to lead this team and make it his own, will shred the leaky Green Bay secondary that ranks 31st against the pass. Whatever it is, I don’t see the Packers winning by anything less than ten so am already giving you my pick.
Should the Packers’ success at stopping the run continue here, Ponder will have every opportunity to excite those Vikings fans who’ve been calling for him to start for more than a couple of weeks and should he be able to pull it off against the Pack, then Minneapolis-St. Paul has an instant new hero and he and Peterson will become the twin faces of the Twin Cities. However, that’s a giant ‘if’, even though he displayed no little amount of poise when replacing Donovan McNabb last week, going 9-17 for 99 yards. Chicago on a Sunday night, without quite being a baptism of fire this season, isn’t top of any rookie quarterback’s list for a debut and I’m looking forward to seeing how he performs hereon in.
To the Packers…what else is there to say? Rodgers’ stats have MVP written all over them and as he (and the team) showed when falling behind by 14 in Atlanta two weeks ago, they refuse to panic and systematically scored 25 unanswered points to see out that game and this showdown comes at a good time after they took their foot off the gas in the second half of last week’s 24-3 victory at home to the Rams.
Having to come out this week fully focused is exactly what they’ll need because, with them looking so dominant, the worry remains that their intensity levels may drop off at various points during the season and should a couple of momentary lapses result in them failing to reach the Super Bowl, Heaven help the rest of the NFL next season.
With intensity levels at a premium this week, this should be a no contest. I emphasise the word ‘should’, but I fully expect the Pack to cover the spread with little difficulty.

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