ATLANTA FALCONS @ DETROIT LIONS 
Vegas Line: Falcons + 3.5
Rob’s Line: Falcons + 3.5
Are the Detroit Lions really at home again? They are, but with different expectations than they would’ve anticipated before last week’s loss to those fightin’ 49ers. I watched that game, fully expecting the Lions to come out in the second half full of their usual verve and tenacity, but they didn’t and it’s not as though they should have been intimdated by the Niners’ pass defense, which is pretty shoddy when you boast receiving targets of the calibre of Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew.
My theory is that they believed their own hype a little and didn’t expect San Fran to play as tough as they did. Johnson didn’t have a bad day at all really with seven catches for 113 yards, but that includes no touchdowns for the first time this season and he was only targeted nine times, which, as I say, against a below average Niners pass defense, is disappointing. The Lions will need to work much harder if they wish to realise their playoff ambitions and this week sees another NFC playoff contender come to town as the Atlanta Falcons look to build on last week’s (almost narrow?) win over Cam’s Carolina.
I still say the Panthers are the best 1-5 team in years, but they are more than a little prone to leaking yards on the ground and the Falcons’ Michael Turner had his most productive week of the season last Sunday as he burnt them for 139 yards and, curiously, despite the presence of the fearsome Ndamukong Suh at defensive tackle, the Lions haven’t been much better at stopping the run so far, giving up 129 yards per game so maybe Turner excels again this week. However, this Detroit team is hurting heading into this one and I see them playing with an increased intensity.
The Falcons should again be missing wide receiver Julio Jones as he recovers from a hamstring injury and as the Lions rank sixth overall against the pass, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan may well be utilising Turner as much as he did last week while trying to keep his own mistakes down to a minimum, which worked a treat against the Panthers last Sunday.
Detroit’s hopes of running the ball lie with a veteran who’s amassed the grand total of 20 yards on 9 carries this season. With Jahvid Best ruled out, Maurice Morris becomes the Lions’ featured back and he’ll be up against a Falcons’ rushing D ranked seventh in the league and, while he looked OK in relief of Best late on last week against San Francisco, it’s a different matter entirely starting a game against a defense good against the run from the very first snap.
As I wrote earlier, Detroit’s intensity level should be at an optimum this week, but now being a game behind Green Bay in the NFC North, they should be resigned to that being the case for the rest of the season (behind closed doors anyway) and this is a game that Atlanta really has to win and probably feels they can. They’ve been maddeningly inconsistent this season and are far from being trustworthy in the eyes of handicappers as we’re never sure which Falcons unit will turn up.
Detroit is coming off an emotional loss last week, but they remain at home with a raucous crowd behind them. In a week of difficult games to call (on the handicap), this is right up there with them so I stick my neck out and take those maddeningly inconsistent Falcons with the points.
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