OAKLAND RAIDERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS 
Vegas Line: Raiders + 3
Rob’s Line: Raiders + 2.5
I really love this matchup for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it features two teams extremely popular on the British side of the pond. The reason for this is that when Channel 4 first decided to air NFL highlights in 1982 (a week after the actual games had taken place), these were two franchises perennially in the playoff picture and were drenched in glamour.
The Raiders were based in LA so had the coolest name in the league, were striking in Silver and Black and had a bad boy image. It wasn’t my cup o’ tea, but thousands fell for their dubious charm and the UK fanbase remains to this day.
The Dolphins were all about Dan Marino. Here was the new quarterback kid on the block and the images of him throwing touchdown passes to the ‘Marks Brothers’, Messrs. Duper and Clayton have lived long in the memory. They were the most exciting team in football and featured in two of the first three Super Bowls ever shown live in the UK, Super Bowls XVII and XIX. They lost both, but the British love for a heroic loser meant that their popularity has never waned.
Secondly, both of these teams are playing hot.
As I wrote in my weekly Power Rankings, Miami are 3-3 over their last six games, but could, and should, have won all six. The overall margin of defeat in the three losses is just seven points and that includes Tim Tebow’s first miraculous escape of the season in Week 7.
I first pegged Oakland as 1.5 point underdogs, but increased it by a point due to their current crop of injuries added to the fact that they’re travelling cross country for this one against a strong team. Running back Darren McFadden is as good as ruled out and the same applies to receiver Jacoby Ford, but, as we know, the Raiders aren’t missing McFadden too much as Michael Bush has proved more than an able deputy. He did have his least productive game in five outings last week with just 69 yards against Chicago and he faces a good Miami run defense that ranks seventh in the league, but Bush is a workhorse back and a fascinating matchup lies ahead.
*One piece of news around a Raider injury is that middle linebacker Roland McClain was at the scene of a fight on Wednesday night in Decatur (McClain’s home town), Alabama, in which there was gunfire. McClain hadn’t practiced that day and neither did he on Thursday, which makes him doubtful and considering he’s the team’s second leading tackler, his loss would be felt a lot more than McFadden’s.
Miami’s resurgence (as odd as that looks for a 3-8 team), has been led by quarterback Matt Moore, and his 8 TDs and 2 INTs in his last six starts, while not spectacular, has been a steadying influence and he’s not been prone to making costly errors. This has come as something of a surprise to most observers and if he carries on performing this way, the Dolphins’ front office may veer away from taking a quarterback in next April’s Draft.
Miami’s running game has stalled a little of late, but encouraging news for running backs Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas is that Oakland’s given up 610 yards on the ground in it’s last four games and if McClain is out, Moore could be seeing a lot of third and short situations as the Dolphins pound the ball on the Raiders.
This is tough to call and Oakland with a field goal start is attractive as they just keep winning of late and you’ll find many fans of the Silver and Black seeing this spread as too good to be true. Miami should be winning, but find ways to play up to that heroic loser tag…that is part of their charm though.
Overall, I like Miami’s form over the past six weeks and take them to continue that here by covering the spread.
* UPDATE: McClain was arrested on Thursday on misdemeanor assault, firearms and other charges after police said he fired a gun during the fight. He faces charges of assault, menacing, reckless endangerment and firing a gun inside the city limits.
Raiders coach Hue Jackson said McClain was in Alabama for the funeral of his grandfather. Speaking before the arrest, he said McClain would play Sunday at Miami “as far as I know.”
“I can tell you we understand and know exactly what’s going on, and we feel very comfortable with our information and we don’t have any further comment at this time,” Jackson said. After the arrest, Jackson’s been less forthcoming and it appears that the Raiders won’t be seeing McClain any time soon.
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