DENVER BRONCOS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS 
Vegas Line: Vikings + 1
Rob’s Line: Vikings + 0.5
This is an intriguing matchup and a spread I find it almost impossible to get right (do we ever get it ‘right’ before the game’s started?) as a case can be made for both teams to win from scratch. The Vikings’ task has been made a little more difficult with the news that running back Adrian Peterson will miss his second consecutive game this week due to a high ankle sprain. Denver’s chances rest, as ever it seems of late, on one giant intangible…yes folks, you guessed it, Tim Tebow.
Should Peterson have been playing, I’d defeinitely have given the Broncos the start, but without him, I’m loath to offer Denver anything as, bar the elite teams in the league, they’re capable of beating anyone right now behind the rabbit-from-a-hat tricks Tebow can conjure.
Toby Gerhart will again pick up the slack at running back for the Vikes, but he struggled against an outstanding Falcons run defense last week, gaining just 44 yards on 17 carries. However, Denver’s run D isn’t nearly as frightening a proposition and he should have a better day against their 19th ranked unit.
So, to Tebow…and an astonishing stat. How many times in NFL history have a team won four games in a row with their starting QB averaging just 7.5 completions in those victories? I’m going to wager that that’s never happened. Sure, it may have with a defeat or two thrown in over a four game span, but never in four victories, surely. In addition, Tebow isn’t making many mistakes either, having thrown just one interception since taking over Denver’s offense in Week 5.
The Broncos have made no secret of their game plan, which is to mould the offense around Tebow’s skill set and while this is nailbiting stuff for Broncos fans, it’s working and is making them arguably the most exciting team in the league to watch. I did say arguably. Rather unsurprisingly, with Tebow barely being called upon to throw, the Broncos lead the league in rushing, but this isn’t all down to Willis McGahee. No, sirree! Tebow has 455 rushing yards at 5.8 yards a pop, but this is a good Vikings run defense not quite giving up 100 yards per game and an intriguing little battle awaits.
Rookie QB Christian Ponder oversees a Minnesota passing game ranked 30th in the league and that’s not surprising when you’re able to lean on the not inconsiderable skills of Peterson at running back, but it’s a little worrying that only two Vikings receivers, Percy Harvin and Michael Jenkins, have more than 30 receptions this season. With Peterson out, the loads falls upon Ponder and Harvin to keep Denver’s defense on the field, thus keeping the ball away from Tebow.
I get the feeling the Broncos could find themselves on the wrong end of a heavy defeat at almost any time, akin to the 45-10 roasting handed to them by the Lions five weeks ago, but that’s unlikely to happen this week. Based purely on the Vikings not being able to call upon Peterson, I’m taking the Broncos to cover the spread.
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