CAROLINA PANTHERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 
Vegas Line: Panthers + 3
Rob’s Line: Panthers + 0.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a slump, a five game slump that has eradicated any playoff hopes they harboured after opening the season with four wins out of six. Quarterback Josh Freeman has regressed from 2010, but it would’ve been nigh on impossible to replicate last year’s 25 TD, 6 INT season. This year’s 12-16 TD-INT ratio is the ugly sister stat compared to the aforementioned Cinderella stat and his availability for Sunday could be a game time decision as he’s struggling with a shoulder injury that’s seen him limited in practice since Wednesday.
Despite the losing skid, they appear to have played hard in their last two games, both on the road. They lost on both occasions to Green Bay and Tennessee, but there’s a note to both if you’re considering asking them to give up a field goal to Cam Newton and the Panther offense. Last week, they gave up 190 yards rushing to the Titans’ Chris Johnson, the third highest single game total of his career. This came a week after he averaged just 1.1 yards per carry against Atlanta and this is a Bucs run D that ranks 30th in the league. Aside from Carolina’s own planned running game that ranks sixth in the league, Newton is the team’s second leading rusher with 464 yards at 5.4 yards a pop so the Panthers surely can’t fail to rack up decent yardage on the ground.
Tampa’s 35-26 loss to the Packers was a lot closer than anybody expected and they actually pulled to within two points with four minutes to play, but that was a game in which Green Bay was looking ahead. On the following Thursday they were in Detroit for the Thanksgiving Day game so the Tampa matchup was an annoyance they could’ve done without so I’m not going to read too much into that when analysing this one.
Carolina’s run defense is almost as bad as Tampa’s so LeGarrette Blount could be looking at his third consecutive 100 yard game. So, with both teams likely being able to run the ball effectively, who do you like best at quarterback to trust with your hard earned? It’d take a huge leap of faith to rely on Freeman and Newton has proven erratic at times this season, although we all suspected that would be the case. Hmmm, what to do…?
It’s here that I look at an intangible and it’s quite a glaring one, namely Newton’s athletic ability. When flushed out of the pocket on Sunday, I can’t see him not finding plenty of running room and I’d much rather rely on that than what Freeman offers, although he’s no slouch either and has two touchdown runs to his credit this season.
I am a little surprised at the Vegas line if I’m honest and while I like the Panthers plus a field goal, I’m not as enamoured as I would like to be and it’s because this is Carolina’s third consecutive road game. However, there’s no way I’m asking the Buccaneers to cover this spread so I take the Panthers and the points.
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