TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS 
Vegas Line: Buccaneers + 14
Rob’s Line: Buccaneers + 14.5
OK, let’s first say that Tampa Bay won’t win this one. There have been many, many teams down the years who’ve overcome being 14 point underdogs to surprise everybody (Super Bowls XXXII, XXXVI and XLII for example), but Green Bay won’t succumb to that this Sunday.
Their pass defense, ranked 31st in the league, appears to be the only weakness, but even that isn’t a problem and if we’re honest, the reason that they’re giving up more passing yards than most teams is because the Packers are normally (so far) ahead in games that teams have little option than to practically abandon their run game.
Aaron Roders is unstoppable, throwing 28 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions through nine games while leading his team to average 35.6 points per game, the most in the NFL. The run game is there to support what Rodgers can do so won’t be breaking records any time soon. However, it’s the perfect complement to when Rodgers drops back with the ball in his hand. They’ve scored 45 points in each of their last two games and on current form the Buccaneers aren’t any better than even the Vikings, the Pack’s victim last week, so will the same happen this week? Frankly, it could do.
Since winning impressively at home to the Saints in Week 6, Tampa’s season has hit the skids and the slump seemed to begin with their trip to London; they’ve lost three in a row and that becomes four this week and their early season playoff aspirations appear long gone until 2012.
Rodgers won’t be threatened by a Bucs defense that ranks 29th against the run and 28th against the pass, but as we’re looking at this from purely a betting viewpoint, can Tampa do enough to protect a 14 point handicap? The answer should be ‘no’, but with the NFC North crown already in the bag, will the Pack dare to look forward to a schedule that features the Lions twice (the first clash just four days after this one, on the road), the Giants, Raiders and Bears?
A franchise as professional as Green Bay should never let that happen, but this one is almost as good as a gimme before some of the heavyweights hone into view so the foot may come off the gas ever so slightly. Only because I have no faith whatsoever in the Bucs right now, I take Green Bay to cover…just.
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