Week 10: Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers

TENNESSEE TITANS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Vegas Line: Titans + 3.5

Rob’s Line: Titans + 6.5

Time for the best 2-6 team in football (it’s a close call, Vikings fans) to play the worst 4-4 team in football. OK, getting straight to the point here, what is Vegas thinking, asking Carolina to win by just four points? I plain don’t get this and can’t fathom how the sharks haven’t caused the oddsmakers to push this line out nearer to my evaluation.
Perhaps that’s why I’m not employed by the sportsbooks in Nevada, but I’m always happy to put my spread up against theirs and this is one of those games that I can’t wait to see unfold, so confident am I in Vegas getting this one very, very wrong.
Let’s start with the fundamentals of football, the running game. Tennessee ranks 23rd in the league against the run and, while the prospect of facing DeAngelo Williams and/or Jonathan Stewart wouldn’t ordinarily strike fear into the hearts of NFL defenders, it isn’t just those two that the Titans have to worry about. Here’s a short breakdown of each back’s production this season: Williams, 75 carries, 363 yards, 1 TD. Stewart, 71 carries, 327 yards, 2 TDs. Very similar stats, which is fair enough, but we’re forgetting one other vital ingredient of the Panthers’ running game, perhaps the most important ingredient, a fellow by the name of Cam Newton. Here’s how his stats measure up against Williams and Stewart: 63 carries, 319 yards, 7 TDs. Yes, seven touchdowns.
That stat in itself is enough to make me favour Carolina by at least a field goal. In addition, the Panthers are at home, receiver Steve Smith has found a new lease of life now Newton’s in town, they rank in the top eight in both offensive run and pass categories and that home field advantage generates a lively crowd because they’re an exciting team to watch.
In contrast, the Titans miss receiver Kenny Britt desperately, running back Chris Johnson has been mired in a slump all season resulting in their running game ranking dead last in the NFL and they’ve recently lost to three good teams in the Steelers, Texans and Bengals. And the Panthers are a good team. Those three losses were by a combined 62 points.
I cannot see any reason not to think that Carolina is the steal of the weekend.

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