HOUSTON TEXANS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 
Vegas Line: Buccaneers + 3
Rob’s Line: Buccaneers + 5.5
The Houston Texans, who are currently on fire may I add, have taken what is most definitely the sensible option with regards wide receiver Andre Johnson. His hamstring injury will cause him to miss his sixth straight game this Sunday and with them having a bye next week, it offers Houston the perfect opportunity to have him back as we approach December, which means that come January, Johnson should be at the peak of his powers once again as we head to the playoffs.
And this is where the Texans are heading, barring a catastrophe, and, once there, they’re capable of beating anybody.
Along with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston is the most balanced team in the AFC and they rank in the top four in each of the four main offensive and defensive categories, only falling short in passing offense, where they rank 14th. That’s hardly a surprise though when you’re missing your best, quickest, most talented wide receiver.
However, they’ve made up for Johnson’s absence on the ground and possess the league’s best one-two punch at running back. Arian Foster and Ben Tate have combined for 1,279 yards so far this season (Foster 656, Tate 623) and they both broke 100 yards last week against Cleveland.
Tampa’s lost its best interior defensive lineman, Gerald McCoy, for the season, and with a run defense that already ranks 26th in the league, I simply don’t know how the Bucs are going to stop the Texans on the ground and you have to worry exactly how many rushing yards they may yield.
Since beating the Saints impressively at home four weeks ago, Tampa’s lost its way a little and I suppose having to travel to London for a ‘home’ game didn’t help (especially as there was more support for the Bears than the Bucs inside Wembley stadium). However, at 4-4, they remain in the race for the NFC South, albeit two games behind the Saints, but a win here and a Saints loss in Atlanta has them one game from the division lead so motivation levels should be at a premium.
That word motivation is one thing that possibly detracts from thinking that Houston will win something like 30-10 and cover the spread with ease. They appear a lock for the AFC South and may not play as hard with a bye week looming followed by games against the Falcons, Bengals and Panthers thereafter. As I say, it’s a danger, but this is a hungry team and up for grabs in the AFC is home field advantage throughout the playoffs, a race the Texans are in with a good chance of winning.
I find it difficult to have faith in Tampa this week to protect a three point handicap and think that asking Houston to win by four makes much more sense. This looks to be one of the bets of the week.
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