Week 11: San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Vegas Line: Chargers + 3.5

Rob’s Line: Chargers + 4.5

How can Vegas only ask Chicago to win by four points against a San Diego team in freefall? They’ve lost four in a row, but a closer look tells a slightly different story. They led 14-3 in New York before succumbing to the Jets, threw the game away in the last minute in Kansas City before finally going down in overtime and then lost a shootout to the Packers.

Week 11: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Vegas Line: Eagles + 5.5

Rob’s Line: Eagles + 5.5

I initially had Philadelphia pegged plus 4.5, but pushed the spread out a little as the Eagles will be without both Michael Vick and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. Both are a huge loss and Vick not just from a quaterbacking standpoint as he’s also second on the team in rushing with 535 yards at 8.2 yards a pop. Those stats are a huge reason why Philly boasts the league’s number one running game, but LeSean McCoy will need to do it all on his own this week.

Week 11: Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons

TENNESSEE TITANS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Vegas Line: Titans + 6

Rob’s Line: Titans + 7.5

I have to admit that I’m not taken by Tennessee and yes, that’s still despite their stunning 30-3 win in Carolina last week. I didn’t see anything like that coming and were they to go there again this week, I’d once again fancy the Panthers to win by ten. I’m convinced the Titans caught Cam Newton and co. on a post-bye week downer so why would I like Tennessee this week in Atlanta? I don’t.

Week 11: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Vegas Line: Cardinals + 9.5

Rob’s Line: Cardinals + 9.5

A very curious thing happened in San Francisco last week. Frank Gore had a toal of zero yards on six carrries. San Francisco’s star running back (star player?) did leave the win over the Giants with a knee injury, but that’s a blot on the copybook of his career that won’t please him.

Week 11: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

 DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Vegas Line: Redskins + 7

Rob’s Line: Redskins + 5.5

Yes, I’m probably overestimating Washington’s chances and while I’m not coy when saying Vegas appear to have got it wrong (in my humble opinion), if I take more time to consider this spread, I think Vegas’s is a truer reflection.

Week 11: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Vegas Line: Buccaneers + 14

Rob’s Line: Buccaneers + 14.5

OK, let’s first say that Tampa Bay won’t win this one. There have been many, many teams down the years who’ve overcome being 14 point underdogs to surprise everybody (Super Bowls XXXII, XXXVI and XLII for example), but Green Bay won’t succumb to that this Sunday.

Week 11: Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ DETROIT LIONS
Vegas Line: Panthers + 7

Rob’s Line: Panthers + 4.5

There you have it. My pick is the Panthers plus seven. Yes, I could keep this extremely short because I’m not going to deviate away from that as a 2.5 point differential is big. The spread does look rather inflated in favour of Carolina and if for no other reason than just four days after this contest, Detroit host Green Bay on Thanksgiving, a game that looms even larger for them in light of their 37-13 loss in Chicago last week.

Week 11: Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Vegas Line: Raiders + 1.5

Rob’s Line: Vikings + 0.5

Straight out, this is an incredibly tough game to call. Before last week’s games, the Vikings would undoubtedly have been favoured for this one, but the Raiders won in San Diego as seven point underdogs while the Vikings had to sit through Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers picking them apart to the tune of 45-7.

Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Vegas Line: Browns + 1

Rob’s Line: Browns + 1.5

Sadly, for Cleveland Browns fans, this part of the schedule must be proving tough to watch…the Rams last week and now the Jaguars. However, hang on one second…the Rams beat the Browns and the Jags are favoured to win this week so to hell with dissing the opponents, how bad must it be being a Browns fan right now?

Week 11: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Vegas Line: Bills + 2

Rob’s Line: Bills + 2.5

The Miami Dolphins are steadily playing themselves out of the Andrew Luck Bowl Series, having won their last two games, but they could very well be sitting at 4-5 having run the Giants mighty close in New York in Week 8 and this coming seven days after they miraculously snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Broncos in that momentous/ridiculous Tim Tebow inspired comeback.

Week 11: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Vegas Line: Bengals + 7

Rob’s Line: Bengals + 7.5

This promises to be a contest not for the faint hearted. Of course, it pales into insignificance against the Ravens/Steelers rivalry, but as an individual game this features two of the league’s best defenses…well, the best (Ravens) against fourth (Bengals). However, there’s one ingredient missing and that’s the spiciest of them all – Ray Lewis doesn’t play due to a toe injury.

Week 11: New York Jets at Denver Broncos

NEW YORK JETS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Vegas Line: Broncos + 6

Rob’s Line: Broncos + 2.5

I’m loath to do this, but I have to come right out and say it: I think Denver are a very good thing this week and that Vegas offering them with a six point start is something definitely not to be missed. I’m loath because why I’m placing so much faith in Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow is almost laughable after last week’s win at Kansas City.

Week 11 Power Rankings

Hi NFLers

Welcome to my weekly NFL Power Rankings – a look at how I rank the 32 NFL teams after the Monday Night Football fallout. The figures to the right of the logo denote each team’s current record while the number to the left in brackets is where I had them placed last week.
With the season of the bye week now upon us, should I mention a team’s overall offense or defense in the context of leading or propping up the league, I’ll place an asterisk next to that statistic because some teams have played a game less then others and these waters will become further muddied the longer the season progresses, until Week 12, when every team would have had their bye week and the statistics bear a truer reflection.

Big love for: Steelers, Bears, Raiders, Titans

No love for: Ravens, Bills, Chiefs

1. (1) 9-0 The last four Super Bowls have all been competitive or, in a couple of cases, absolute classics. We may be pining for such a game come February in Indianapolis.

2. (5) 7-3 The Saints justified their lofty perch in last week’s rankings and I still say they’ll make the NFC Championship Game.

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Vegas Line: Vikings + 13

Rob’s Line: Vikings + 12.5

Can Green Bay go through the season undefeated? This is a question asked of many (but not all) teams who happen to be 8-0 halfway through the season. However, much like the Patriots and Colts when they’ve been in the same situation over the last decade, this is a legitimate question to ask this year as the Packers are head and shoulders above the rest of the league.

Week 10: New England Patriots at New York Jets

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW YORK JETS
Vegas Line: Patriots + 2.5

Rob’s Line: Patriots + 0.5

This is what the NFL is all about. It’s Sunday night, it’s primetime, it’s the second best rivalry in the league and you can bet on Tom Brady with points on his side! Only the second best rivalry? You got it. Nothing right now beats the Ravens/Steelers and after their classic last Sunday night, well, I hope it never ends.

Week 10: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

NEW YORK GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Vegas Line: Giants + 3.5

Rob’s Line: Giants + 4.5

For a game as big as this between two teams at least hoping to advance to the NFC Championship Game (all roads to the Super Bowl go through Green Bay), I find it particularly easy to side with one team, both from scratch and also on the handicap. I love the 49ers here. Now, being a Seahawk that statement sticks in the craw somewhat, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that we’re dealing in cold, hard facts and placing your hard earned on a winner…hopefully.

Week 10: Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Vegas Line: Seahawks + 6.5

Rob’s Line: Seahawks + 6.5

As much as it pains me, I’m struggling to see how Seattle will score (any???) points against this Baltimore Ravens defense. Yes, the Seahawks at home are normally a different proposition than on the road, but facing a team whose defense ranks third against the run and fourth against the pass when your own offense is averaging less than nine points per game in its last three outings doesn’t make for good bed time reading, more the stuff of nightmares.

Week 10: Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Vegas Line: Cardinals + 14

Rob’s Line: Cardinals + 10.5

Well, look at this. I could be very wrong here and may have underestimated the spread because Arizona is being asked to play at 1pm Eastern Time, 10am on their own body clock. However, the rule is not to bet on bad teams giving up two touchdowns. The Eagles have a bunch of outstanding players, but a severe lack of chemistry so obviously they’re not a very good team.

Week 10: St. Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Vegas Line: Rams + 3

Rob’s Line: Rams + 1.5

Is this the game then that only loved ones of those taking part will be watching? The player selected last overall in the NFL Draft is titled ‘Mr. Irrelevant’…can this game become their second cousin removed?!! Yes, it is harsh of me and I apologise to all you Rams and Browns out there, but I’m a Seahawk so I think I’ve earnt my turn down the years at a little dig in the ribs every now and again.

Week 10: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Vegas Line: Falcons + 0.5

Rob’s Line: Saints + 0.5

The Georgia Dome will reserve a special welcome for unpopular divisional foe the Saints when they waltz into town on Sunday for what is a fascinating NFC South matchup. New Orleans sits half a game up on Atlanta, but the Falcons are the form team of the two and a win would see them leapfrog the Saints in to first place.

Week 10: Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Vegas Line: Redskins + 4

Rob’s Line: Redskins + 5.5

A truly terrible thing happened to the Washington Redskins last week and it has nothing to do with their loss to the 49ers. Well, only in so much as they were the team that Washington happened to be playing at the time. Rookie running back Roy Helu broke Art Monk’s Redskins single game rececption record with 14. Sadly, there’s no law against that kind of robbery in the NFL.

Week 10: Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers

TENNESSEE TITANS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Vegas Line: Titans + 3.5

Rob’s Line: Titans + 6.5

Time for the best 2-6 team in football (it’s a close call, Vikings fans) to play the worst 4-4 team in football. OK, getting straight to the point here, what is Vegas thinking, asking Carolina to win by just four points? I plain don’t get this and can’t fathom how the sharks haven’t caused the oddsmakers to push this line out nearer to my evaluation.

Week 10: Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Vegas Line: Buccaneers + 3

Rob’s Line: Buccaneers + 5.5

The Houston Texans, who are currently on fire may I add, have taken what is most definitely the sensible option with regards wide receiver Andre Johnson. His hamstring injury will cause him to miss his sixth straight game this Sunday and with them having a bye next week, it offers Houston the perfect opportunity to have him back as we approach December, which means that come January, Johnson should be at the peak of his powers once again as we head to the playoffs.

Week 10: Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys

BUFFALO BILLS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Vegas Line: Bills + 5.5

Rob’s Line: Bills + 3.5

What a great matchup this is. Dallas will again be without running back Felix Jones, but do you think that will spread any fear around Cowboys Stadium? Yes, of course that was my cue to mention DeMarco Murray. The rookie third round draft pick has been a sensation since stepping into the starting role and in his last three games against the Rams, Eagles and Seahawks, he’s rushed for 466 yards at an average of 8.6 yards per carry. It’s surely form that can only continue for a certain amount of time, but the Seahawks are considered good against the run and he racked up 139 yards last Sunday.

Week 10: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Vegas Line: Colts + 3

Rob’s Line: Colts + 1.5

As the Indianapolis Colts look at the schedule to close the season, it would appear that all they can do is march inexorably to the number one overall draft pick next April, a reward that appears likely to present them the opportunity of selecting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.