This week is a tough one to predict although there does look to be one outstanding bet of the week. However, I’m going to advise against it as it looks just too good to be true. So, yes, just one outstanding bet, but I’m going to put forth three picks at the end of this post.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at BUFFALO BILLS
BAL Patriots -3.5...BAL Bills +4
I wouldn’t
want to be associated with the Buffalo Bills this week, either as a player or a
fan. If you think the Packers are going to be fired up this week, then they
almost have nothing on the Patriots.
They’ve lost
their last two games by a total of three points, but while New England found
some sympathisers in league circles after Baltimore was awarded what Bill
Belichick clearly thought was a rogue winning field goal, I believe the call
was good.
I’ve seen the
winning kick ten times and the field goal is good on all ten occasions.
However, the ire that Belichick feels, a conniption that will undoubtedly have
been translated to every player on his roster, could very well come to the
bettors’ aid this week.
This Patriots two
game losing streak won’t last very long and I see it coming to an end this week.
Yes, against a Bills team who’ve won two in a row after a stupendous opening
day loss to the Jets. Belichick and Tom Brady just don’t enter territory such
as losing three games in a row and, lest we forget that, despite losing in
Baltimore last Sunday night, they covered the spread as they were available
+2.5.
Fred Jackson
returns for the Bills this week, amazing timing considering that C.J. Spiller
is questionable, but New England’s stout against the run (81 YPG). The Patriots
are angry and I like them to win by at least four.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at NEW YORK JETS
BAL 49ers -3.5...BAL
Jets +4
Last week,
before the 49ers went to Minnesota as 6.5 point favourites, I wrote this: At
face value, San Fran look good being asked to only win by a touchdown,
especially as they’ve already covered the spread against the Packers and Lions
in the first two weeks. However, I’m wary. I just am.
Probably
because those two wins were against playoff calibre teams and the Vikings are
nothing of the sort, meaning they may take their foot off the gas a little this
week.
Plus, they’re
on the road at the Jets next week, kicking off at 10 a.m. PT, a game they’ll
really need to focus all of their energies on.
There really
are some ‘trap’ games when it comes to betting ATS in the NFL and they don’t
come much more classic than the Niners’ trip to the Vikings last week.
The 10 a.m. PT
kick off for San Fran should actually present a problem or two this week, but
they were exceptional at covering the spread in the Eastern time zone last
season. However, it pays to remember that they crept up on the rails of quite a
few teams last year, something that has no chance of being repeated in 2012.
Imagine how
the Patriots would feel should Tom Brady be lost for the season. Yes, it
happened once. The Jets are (probably) experiencing similar emotions right now
having lost their best player for the rest of the season.
The green half
of New Jersey is a different proposition when Darrelle Revis is lined up at
cornerback. Kyle Wilson, picked 29th overall in the 2010 draft,
takes over opposite Antonio Cromartie and you want to know the Jets’ contingency
plan? Running back Joe McKnight. I kid you not.
Popular wisdom
has it that the Jets are on such a downer now that they’re there for the
taking. If anybody takes that as the cue to lay your hard earned on the 49ers,
then may the luck of Alex Smith be with you. This is far from being a ‘trap’
game, but I’m still leaving it well alone.
CAROLINA PANTHERS at ATLANTA FALCONS
BAL Panthers
+8...BAL Falcons -7
I always saw
Andy Dalton suffering a sophomore slump, but never Cam Newton. It is too early
to confirm such a notion, but not too early to speculate. Maybe we’ll find out,
as his career careers along, that he’s not up to playing on primetime as his
performance was demoralising in the thumping Carolina received at home to the
Giants.
An NFC South
matchup could be just what he needs right now, but if the Panthers are to win,
they’ll need to buck an early betting trend.
With Week 3 in
the books, form lines are emerging and the term ‘covering machine’ can begin to
be wheeled out. Atlanta is one of four such teams, 3-0 ATS right now, along
with Arizona, Houston and Tampa Bay.
The Falcons
are averaging 31.3 points per game, tied for second in the league (behind
Washington) and will look to air out often and early against the Panthers.
They’re coming off a quite sensational win in San Diego, a game in which they
were actually three point underdogs, a line they made a mockery of and there’s
no chance they’ll be taking their foot off the pedal this week either.
The Panthers
were considered to be a major threat to Atlanta in the NFC playoff race this
season, but the Falcons have the chance to forge a three game lead over
Carolina after only four weeks. It’s a chance they should be able to take and I
am inclined to take them -7. However, they won’t go 16-0 ATS and the streak
will come to an end at some stage.
Up against
Newton, it’s difficult to predict what kind of game he’ll have so, while I lean
towards Atlanta, it’s ultimately not enough for me to lay down any hard earned.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS at DETROIT LIONS
BAL Vikings
+4.5...BAL Lions -4
Faint praise
effort of the week: Steve Mariucci this week said that Christian Ponder was
“steady” against San Francisco last week. Wow. He was sensational against San
Francisco last week, throwing for two touchdowns and running 23 yards for
another. And all this against a defense being lauded as the league’s best.
If Minnesota’s
the pleasant surprise of 2012, then Ponder’s play thus far is a close second.
On the season, he’s completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 713 yards, has 4
TDs against 0 INTs and has a passer rating of 104.9. This is heady stuff and
his leadership qualities are also being admired. Completely under the radar,
the Vikings look to be a team on the rise and what’s not to like about them
receiving 4.5 points in Detroit this week?
Matthew
Stafford looks set to play this week despite nursing a hip injury and Jared
Allen would have been dreaming of this matchup all week.
Minnesota
covered the spread as the underdog last week after having twice failed to do so
as a favourite while Detroit are 0-3 ATS, twice as a favourite. They’ll be glad
to be back at home this week, but the betting form points all one way here. It
simply has to be the Vikings and the points.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
BAL Chargers
PK...BAL Chiefs +1.5
I don’t want
anything to do with this one. San Diego was horrible last week and Kansas City
was horrible through the first two weeks of the season. Good luck picking ATS
here.
After their
mauling at home to the Falcons last week, the Chargers won’t be relishing
heading to Arrowhead. Conversely, the Chiefs will be buoyed by their comeback
on the road in New Orleans last week and are licking their chops in
anticipation of facing a wounded AFC West foe. A wounded foe is often a dangerous
animal, but San Diego have proven themselves to have a soft underbelly in
recent seasons and that, in my opinion, comes straight from the head coach.
Norv Turner is docile and his team mirrors that sometimes, particularly when it
most matters.
Jamaal Charles
ran riot in the Superdome last week, to the tune of 233 yards, but that hasn’t
proven difficult against the Saints this season; New Orleans is giving up a
ridiculous 215 yards per game on the ground, worst in the NFL by a considerable
margin.
The Chargers
are a lot more stout defending the run, allowing just 67.3 rushing yards per
game. However, and somewhat intriguingly, the Chiefs lead the league in
rushing, averaging 191.7 yards per game so something’s got to give this week.
Enjoy this one
for what it is, a throwback to the glory days of the AFL, but forced to pick
here, I prefer KC and their number two ranked offense over San Diego’s 24th
ranked unit.
TENNESSEE TITANS at HOUSTON TEXANS
BAL Titans +12...BAL
Texans -12
I wrote last
week that I couldn’t give any credence to Houston’s form over the first two
weeks of the season, sitting as they were at 2-0 having seen off the might of
the Dolphins and Jaguars. Week 3 in Denver would prove how good they were and
they passed with flying colours. This week they go back to (probably) seeing
off another weak team...well, weak when compared to what’s on show in south
east Texas.
If events in
Seattle created the wildest ending to any game last week, the wildest game was
Tennessee’s overtime win over Detroit. Jake Locker was sensational, throwing
for 378 yards and two touchdowns and he knows that this week everything’s all
on him again as the Titans’ running game is worse than woeful.
It seriously
looks as though Chris Johnson’s head has gone. His pitiful stats this season
are 33 rushes for 45 yards at 1.4 yards a pop. That’s an embarrassment and how
the heck is he going to muster anything against Houston’s number five ranked
run defense? In short, he won’t, or at least he shouldn’t. If he manages anything
like 60 yards against them, that’s got to be considered a success so Locker
will have to use everything in his own, er, locker to pull out the W here.
Let’s face it,
it isn’t going to happen. The Texans had the Titans on their tail in the AFC
South all of last season and they had to swat them away to win the division.
Things are different in 2012. Houston’s a juggernaut of a team and the division
is theirs for the taking, something that began in earnest last week.
Will they
cover the spread? Perhaps, but buyer beware. They travel to face the Jets on
Monday night next week so if they develop a decent lead against the Titans,
expect them to relax a little in the fourth quarter, possibly allowing
Tennessee a back door cover.
CINCINNATI BENGALS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
BAL Bengals PK...BAL
Jaguars +1.5
Jacksonville
made a mockery of my bet of the week last week when they won 22-17 in
Indianapolis, an outcome I never anticipated, particularly when we were sitting
pretty with the Colts leading 14-3 at halftime. I’ll keep to myself my thoughts
on Andrew Luck as the game entered the final five minutes, suffice to say that
I won’t be trusting him with any more of my money any time soon...perhaps even
for the remainder of the season.
I’d consider
the Jaguars win last week, on the road at a division rival, an emotional win,
which makes Cincinnati relatively good value here. In addition, it’s difficult
to trust Jacksonville to pull out two good performances back to back. Heck,
they couldn’t even pull out two decent halves of football back to back last
week. Then again, nor did Seattle.
Both teams are
2-1 ATS, but the Bengals barely covered in Week 2, at home to Cleveland.
However, I was mightily impressed with their win in Washington last week and
like them from scratch (PK) here. It does literally all come down to which team
I trust more and, despite the Jags making me look a fool last week, I’m not
prepared to suddenly jump on their merry little bandwagon.
With little to
no delving into the spread, my hunch says the Bengals to win straight up (SU),
which translates to covering at the same time.
OAKLAND RAIDERS at DENVER BRONCOS
BAL Raiders +7...BAL
Broncos -6.5
If
Jacksonville surprised me last week, then so did Oakland. They easily covered
the spread (+4.5) at home to Pittsburgh, but I do believe the sportsbooks to
have overreacted a little to that win as I’m more inclined to offer the Raiders
+9.
The fact that
this is a divisional matchup would likely have played a part because if this
were played on a neutral field, you’d reduce the spread by three points to
account for no home field advantage. Suddenly, the Broncos -3.5 looks very
attractive so why wouldn’t -6.5 be equally so? Especially against a Raiders
team likely missing Darrius Heyward-Bey at wide receiver with a neck
injury/concussion like symptoms. Admittedly, it’s not as though Heyward-Bey’s
pulling up trees this season, but quarterback Carson Palmer’s targeted him 18
times this season, joint second on the team.
Denver were being dominated by Houston last week until they scored a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but that could happen to almost any team so there’s no disgrace in going down 31-25 at home to the Texans. Just two weeks ago, Oakland was destroyed in the second half by Miami and that lingers fresh in the memory, particularly as it was a road game, as is the case here.
I cannot
advise on backing Oakland here so I side with Denver to cover...but not by
much.
MIAMI DOLPHINS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
BAL Dolphins +6.5...BAL
Cardinals -5.5
What’s going
on here? This doesn’t feel right. Why aren’t the Dolphins +10?
The Cardinals
are a covering machine (3-0 ATS) with a defense conceding 13.3 points per game,
second in the league behind the Seahawks. The Dolphins have already been blown
away as a road underdog this season so why are the Cardinals being asked to win
by just six points here?
In addition,
Reggie Bush is banged up (knee) although his prospects of playing this week
appear to be good. In further addition (if such a phrase passes through the
Oxford English Dictionary), Arizona tore the Eagles apart last week and covered
the spread ridiculously easily.
Should Bush
suit up, and if he’s ready for the pounding, he may actually have some success
running the ball, particularly as Darnell Docket looks set to miss out with a
hamstring injury.
As expected,
Ryan Tannehill has struggled somewhat as a rookie and if Bush doesn’t play, I
make the Cardinals an absolute certainty to cover the spread. They may have an
eye on next Thursday night when they travel to the division rival Rams, but
that still doesn’t justify (to me anyway) what looks to be a skinny line.
Still, be
careful on this one as it just doesn’t feel right.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
BAL Redskins
+3...BAL Buccaneers -1.5
This is another line that looks to be a tad skewed. All that Tampa does is cover the spread; Washington is 1-2 ATS and 0-2 ATS since their stunner in the Superdome on opening weekend. However, despite the line not looking entirely trustworthy, a little digging does give us a clue as to perhaps why.
Yes, the
Buccaneers are a covering machine, but they’ve achieved such lofty status as
the underdog on each occasion, including twice on the road (at the Giants and
Cowboys).
They’re being
asked to cover this week as the favourite, something they’re not accustomed to.
You may think that has little significance, but betting trends aren’t something
that are guessed at and this needs serious thought.
There’s no
stingier defense against the run than the Buccaneers (47.3 YPG), but that’ll be
severely tested this week when the Redskins bring their second ranked rushing
attack (180 YPG) to town. It’s a classic case of the irresistible force against
the immovable object and I like the latter more, which means much rests on
Robert Griffin III, but it’s a challenge he’s more than up for, particularly
this week.
As
astoundingly good against the run as the Buccaneers are, they rank dead last
defending the pass, giving up 353 yards per game through the air. Griffin’s
made a solid start to his NFL career (67.4 completion percentage, 4 TDs, 1 INT)
and will fancy his chances of adding to his passing touchdowns this week.
I can make a
case for backing both teams this week, but like Washington and the points more
than I do asking the Bucs to win by two.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
BAL Saints +9...BAL
Packers -7.5
If I wouldn’t
wish to be associated with the Buffalo Bills this week, up against a ticked off
Belichick/Brady double headed monster, then the same can be said of the New
Orleans Saints. They’re not simply up against two first ballot Hall of Famers,
they’re up against an apoplectic city burning with rage at a perceived
injustice and looking to knock seven bells of muck out of the next team in their
path. And the game just happens to be at Lambeau Field. Blimey.
The Packers
will be able to run all day on the Saints and if ever I could feel sorry for a
bunch of guys being paid to play sport, this is one of those occasions. I
expect Green Bay to steamroller New Orleans, despite their offensive woes so
far this season and you may even hear the noise in a city near to you.
NEW YORK GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
BAL Giants +2.5...BAL
Eagles -1
Philadelphia
may have a 2-1 record, but they’re 0-3 ATS and they’re favoured for the fourth
game in a row this week. It seems incredulous and they are vastly overrated by
the sportsbooks so I wouldn’t stand in anybody’s way wishing to back the Giants
with what looks to be a generous 2.5 start. Well, it may be generous if Hakeem
Nicks were playing. He’s officially listed as doubtful (swelling in his knee),
but it’s unlikely he’ll play.
He also missed
Week 3’s thrashing of Carolina, but he wouldn’t wanted to have missed this.
It’s one thing for the Big Blue to go against a Panthers pass defense allowing 243
yards through the air, quite another when the Eagles allow 172 passing yards
per game, third in the league. He’ll be missed this week and it’s a huge boost
for Philly.
Michael Vick’s
problems are well documented and he’s more than played his part in the Eagles
being 0-3 ATS. I have to say that it is a little strange that a team that ranks
fifth overall in offense and fifth overall in defense can’t buy a win ATS; it
makes them incredibly hard to trust, despite the undoubted talent on the
roster.
I watched them
capitulate in Arizona last Sunday and it was a staggering exercise in
ineptitude and there’s no way I can ask them to give away points this week. As
highly ranked as they might be statistically, the Eagles inevitably find ways
to beat themselves, at least in the eyes of the bettor.
These two
teams don’t like each other one bit and it’s going to be a feisty affair and
one I can’t wait for. As for who I like, the Giants and the points, with or
without Hicks.
CHICAGO BEARS at DALLAS COWBOYS
BAL Bears
+3.5...BAL Cowboys -3
Since making a
statement when marching into New Jersey and winning on opening night, Dallas
has gone 0-2 ATS and both times as favourite. They’re favoured again this week
so might they underwhelm once again? Their running game might as, having come
up against the top two run defenses in the league in Seattle and Tampa Bay the
past two weeks, they face a Chicago run defense ranked sixth in the league this
week. Is there no end to the brick walls? Not yet and they travel to Baltimore
after their bye week.
The Bears are
my Super Bowl XLVII tip so I was naturally concerned when Matt Forte went down
recently, but he’s recovered sufficiently to play on Monday night. And his
presence is much needed.
Michael Bush is a capable backup, but that’s the operative word. His 3.4 yards per carry on 44 carries this season are not a patch on Forte’s 4.8 yard average and he’ll test Dallas’s 19th ranked run defense. As for the fanfare surrounding the Bears passing game this season with the additions of receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, they rank just 28th in that category and will struggle against a Cowboys defense allowing just 137 yards per game through the air.
Chicago have
impressed at home so far, albeit against the Colts and Rams, but were
shockingly bad in Green Bay in Week 2. A trip to Dallas is a tough proposition
and as much as I want the Bears to triumph, I really do like the Cowboys -3.
This is not an
easy week to pick teams with certainty, but here goes: my ‘Aaron Curry’ is the
Patriots -3.5 and my bet of the week is the Cowboys -3. The Vikings, despite
being 1-2 ATS, are a team I can’t escape from and I also take them +4.5.
Please gamble responsibly.
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