I refer to Willie McGinest’s Power Rankings on NFL Network, that I watched having returned home from work on Friday afternoon. Work...it’s been a beautifully truncated week here in London (well, the whole of the UK benefited, if I’m honest, but I don’t live in the whole of the UK; I reside in the future home of the Los Angeles Rams) in deference to the Jubilee celebrations and some of us have had trouble getting motivated all over again. I need to revert to making Jack a dull boy.
Power Rankings, something not easy to engage in, despite its
simplicity. I dabbled in it last season and encountered headaches...it’s not
quite as easy as A(rizona), B(uffalo), C(arolina) so I decided to stick to the
handicapping of football games. The scope for debate afterwards is immeasurable
and the thirst for proffering one’s polemic limitless. Which brings me back to
McGinest and Millen...in a short while.
I’ve written previously of an attractive outright price for
Super Bowl XLVII that caught my eye on bet365.com, a price that will (likely)
remain until kickoff on September 9th, irrespective of what
transpires in New Jersey on the evening of the 5th. Said attractive
price is the Chicago Bears at 30/1.
Yes, they play in arguably the toughest division in football
and in the stronger conference, but despite this, there won’t be many teams
relishing the prospect of facing them this season. I want to say at any stage
this season, but they had a successful grip on their own destiny last year
until they lost both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte and with the injury Gods liable
to strike at the most inopportune of moments, no team’s ever safe.
However, they’ve taken out safer insurance policies this
offseason with the acquisitions of Jason Campbell and Michael Bush to back up
Cutler and Forte respectively. The signing of Bush went somewhat unheralded,
but it’s a shrewd piece of business, in my opinion. Perhaps the reason for
Bush’s introduction to Chicago via the back door was due to the seismic
headlines surrounding a new Marshall in town. Brandon and seismic headlines do
good bedfellows make, but he’s been a paragon of virtue since riding in to the
Windy City and I think the planets must need realigning because his behaviour
thus far has been extraordinarily exemplary.
From the perspective of considering the Bears tremendous
value this season, should you, like me, wish to invest a little of your hard
earned on Chicago, we may have the Denver Broncos to thank for affording us a
good run for our money. The shared experience enjoyed by Marshall and Cutler of
playing together at Invesco Authority Sports Elway The Drive Field at Mile High
Stadium has had the most positive of effects and who would have ever have
guessed that the only man alive capable of calming Marshall down was one Jay
Christopher Cutler.
It does remain to be seen how long Marshall keeps this up
for, but with Cutler able to target the at-peace-with-himself receiver, Alshon
Jeffery and Devin Hester and with Forte and/or Bush keeping defences more than
a little honest, I see the Bears being very competitive and about the best
value outright bet there is right now.
I do hear whispers of a shaky offensive line in Chicago (and
Cutler just this weekend did more than speak at a whisper about those (not)
protecting him) and yes, it isn’t the strongest unit in the league, but
consider this: it’s the same bunch of guys as last year and Forte did OK, thank
you very much, for the 12 games he was able to suit up for in 2011, rushing for
997 yards at an average of 4.9 YPA, the latter being a career high.
No NFL coaching staff are idiots (alright, I stand corrected
on this) and those running the show in Chicago obviously have confidence in
those making holes for Forte because they did absolutely nothing to alter or
upgrade the line whatsoever, aside from bringing in Chilo Rachal, a guard from
our very good friends from the red half of the Bay Area.
I think it’s about time I took us back to Willie McGinest
and Matt Millen. I actually thought Willie was going to really indulge us and
count down from 32, but, alas, he wouldn’t dare do that so offered up his top
10. I should have known better on NFL Network...they’re the Yoda of Top 10’s.
I knew the Seahawks wouldn’t be near the top 10, but here’s
McGinest’s take: 10. Lions, 9. Steelers, 8. Saints, 7. Texans, 6. Eagles (good
choice and rightfully this high), 5. Ravens, 4. 49ers, 3. Packers, 2. Patriots,
1. Giants.
Step forward, Millen...”don’t undersell the Chicago Bears.”
I wasn’t expecting that and I don’t know if I should be pleased at Millen’s
opinion or not! But, he’s right. Really right. Really, really, right.
Additionally, I found some vindication in Vegas. However, before that, further
good news.
Being able to receive 30/1 on Chicago at bet365.com had me,
as it turns out, underselling the Bears myself as williamhill.com are actually
offering a staggering 33/1. Now, I don’t know if it’s because British
bookmakers/sportsbooks are ignorant to the NFL offseason, but a truer
reflection of their odds can be found at sportsbook.com (via Vegas Insider),
where they can be backed at only 18/1.
How is it that a team as talented as the Bears can be backed
at almost double the odds as what’s on offer in Vegas? Regardless of the
reason, I’m all over it and one simple truth is that they’re definitely going
to begin the season 1-0 because they host the Colts in their season opener.
Their schedule also includes the Rams and Jaguars in the first five weeks so I
expect them to be 3-2 at the very least as they head into their bye week; the
two losses could come in Green Bay and Dallas, but that’s worst case scenario.
Not that it’s necessarily eye catching, but here’s something
that, er...caught my eye. Sportsbook.com are offering a line on the Super Bowl,
with the NFC currently favoured by 2.5 points. Now, for example, should anybody
favour the Patriots to bounce back and take all before them, then take the AFC
+ 2.5 points early because, should they rip it up early in the season (and they
could easily begin 7-1), that line will decrease to + 0.5 by midseason and we
may even see the AFC favoured by 0.5.
With
very little, if any, odds/line movement around at the moment, finding little
gems like that will keep me ticking over until September 5th.
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