MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ ATLANTA FALCONS 
Vegas Line: Vikings + 9.5
Rob’s Line: Vikings + 8.5
There’s some nice lines to this matchup to consider before deciding where the hard earned goes. Firstly, running back Adrian Peterson is definitely ruled out with the high ankle sprain he picked up in the defeat to the Raiders last week.
That does obviously alter Minnesota’s offensive strategy a little as the team’s second leading rusher is Percy Harvin and he’s a wide receiver! However, up against Atlanta’s second ranked run defense (only giving up 85 yards per game), Peterson figured to be in for a difficult day anyway, but this is Peterson we’re talking about here and being as special as he is, he could rush for 150 yards per game no matter who he’s up against.
Toby Gerhart should receive the bulk of the carries and he ought to be fresh considering he’s only rushed 24 times this season. In addition, his 118 yards have come at an average of 4.9 yards per carry so he’s no slouch clearly, but to do that over 25 carries against this Falcons run D is a lofty expectation.
All of this means that rookie quarterback Christian Ponder may be asked to win this one on his own. Naturally, he’s struggled at times this season, but up against an Atlanta pass defense that ranks 26th, he may find that Harvin, ex-Falcon Michael Jenkins and Visanthe Shiancoe find openings he can exploit.
Last week, Atlanta committed a crime against us handicappers. At home to the Tennessee Titans they led 23-3 late in the third quarter and were doing everything right to cover the spread, something I’d predicted. They then allowed a rookie quarterback to engineer two touchdown drives and barely held on for the win. I felt cheated and it makes me wary this week and is why I think the Vegas line is too high, albeit by a point.
The problem I have with this spread is that I’m of the opinion that the Falcons believed before last week that the games against Tennessee and Minnesota were eminently winnable (a fair assumption) and that all they needed to do was swat aside the small problem of those two before the end of season run-in to the playoffs. With one of those little problems dealt with, here come the Vikings minus Adrian Peterson, an added bonus. Now, after this week, Atlanta’s on the road in Houston and Carolina, both very difficult games for different reasons. I don’t trust the Falcons not to look ahead to those two and it’s why I like the Vikings and the points on offer.
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