NEW YORK JETS @ DENVER BRONCOS 
Vegas Line: Broncos + 6
Rob’s Line: Broncos + 2.5
I’m loath to do this, but I have to come right out and say it: I think Denver are a very good thing this week and that Vegas offering them with a six point start is something definitely not to be missed. I’m loath because why I’m placing so much faith in Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow is almost laughable after last week’s win at Kansas City.
His stats were 2 of 8 for 69 yards and 1 TD. Yes, the Broncos attempted eight passes throughout the whole game and didn’t just have Tebow in for eight snaps. However, there’s more to this than meets the eye.
Before I come to that though, I will give you this little nugget in accompaniment to the above: Tebow became the fifth quarterback since 1980 to throw all of his team’s passes, complete two or fewer and still win (thanks go to ESPN for the info, by the way). Now, am I the only person who read in mild amazement that it had actually happened as many as four times previously in the last 31 years? In a sport where you can garner a stat from almost anything (which simply adds to this incredible game), that is one of the most amazing stats I’ve ever read.
Going back to there being more to the stats than may ordinarily meet the eye, what Broncos coach John Fox has done is come out and tell the whole of the NFL his team’s strategy – to play entirely to Tebow’s strengths, which, strangely, for a quarterback, actually revolves around using his arm as little as possible. This is the most novel team idea to permeate the league in quite some time and makes the Broncos the most intriguing they’ve been to watch all season. Tebow is maddeningly magnetic and now that Fox has declared the playbook an open love letter to Tebow, he’ll polarise opinion like never before…and that’s saying something.
So, naturally, the Broncos will run the ball, right? Well, yes, but that strategy has taken something of a knock this week as leading rusher Willis McGahee is doubtful to play on Thursday due to a hamstring injury picked up against the Chiefs last Sunday. During that game, Knowshon Moreno was also lost for the season after suffering a torn ACL, leaving Lance Ball to carry the load and carry it he did, running 30 times for 96 yards in a pound-it-out-grind-it-out gameplan. McGahee may yet play, but if not, Ball will do exactly what he did last week and if that fails, Fox will call enough option plays that gives Tebow the chance to run the ball himself.
What about the Jets then? For a team that hosted New England last week (as the favoured team) with a chance to take a hold on the division, not only did they lose 37-16, but they retain an offense that ranks 24th running the ball and 20th in passing. In hindsight, how were the Patriots ever in danger of losing three in a row? The Jets were taught a lesson, albeit not until the second half, but they left the field nonetheless with their tails firmly between their legs.
That was an emotional loss for the green half of NY as they entered that one on the back of two impressive wins against San Diego and Buffalo and with this being the shortest week an NFL team on the road can have, they won’t relish travelling to play the Broncos in the rareified air of Denver. Normally, siding with the home side on a Thursday night isn’t difficult, but that didn’t bear fruit last week as the Chargers imploded once again, this time at home to the Raiders.
However, I honestly believe this week to be different, hence my 3.5 point differential to Vegas and I can’t quite believe that we can still watch this game, see the Jets win by five and collect on the Broncos if that’s the way you view it. It almost looks too good to be true and is certainly the way I view it.
Denver’s offensive plan won’t last forever and I’m in little doubt it’ll come unstuck before the regular season comes to an end, but my faith stretches into this week at least and the juicy offering from Vegas.
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